Upon arriving in South Beach, there were reports of newly signed Knowshon Moreno was unconditioned and unprepared for training camp. He was slow and didn’t show his talent for his new team — Miami Dolphins — as he had with the Denver Broncos. On top of those reports, Moreno is coming off of knee surgery and his status is questionable at best. So after a Top 10 campaign in 2013, fantasy GMs are now shifting there focus on to Lamar Miller; as if Moreno not playing will magically transfer Moreno’s talents to Miller.
But the thing is, the whole running back situation is ready to implode:
1. Moreno was not in Miami last season, so Miller won’t be seeing carries that Moreno would have received. Rather, he’ll see a timeshare with Daniel Thomas again, and if Moreno is geared up and ready to go come the first game, he’ll see even less touches.
2. Miller was not efficient last season, and is only trending down. As a rookie, he had a success rate of 45 percent and neared five yards per carry. Those are respectable numbers, but when he took on a workload of more rigor last season, he was only successful on 36 percent of plays involving him, and his average yardage dropped by a yard. Of course, that’s due to him having more carries, so that should tell you that if he does get more carries, he’ll be less effective and prone to be replaced.
3. Opposed to Miller, Thomas has only been trending up since entering the league. Miller may be the top dog on the depth chart, but has increased both his success rate and yard per carry on a consistent basis since entering the league. The coaching staff will likely recognize this at some point and place him as the feature or split back with Moreno. Thomas also finds the end zone better than Miller has — scoring three times as many TDs than Miller, but on less touches.
In all likelihood, the new offensive system that Bill Lazor will be bringing to the team will back off the run all together, and make each back a situational player. Thomas will be used for goal line carries, Moreno for third down and passing situations, and the rest of the carries will be split among the trio. There’s no clear cut starter, and in fantasy football, you want to avoid this at all costs. Sure, you may be tempted to think one of the backs will flourish, but why take the risk?