It’s human nature to remember someone based on your most recent experience with that person. Every year, fantasy football players draft a player based on his performance in the previous year, and often based on that player’s postseason performance if applicable. T.Y. Hilton lit it up late in 2013, but here’s why you don’t want him at his current ADP in 2014.
At a glance, Hilton performed very well last year. He was the 20th-ranked WR in standard scoring, and he was 18th in PPR formats. Hilton blew up in the playoffs, and many fantasy players will likely remember his 224-yard, two-TD performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, upon closer inspection, there are three big red flags that should discourage you from drafting him this coming season.
First, Hilton scored a large portion of his fantasy points and all five of his TDs in Week 5 and Week 9 of 2013. In standard leagues, Hilton scored an astounding 42 percent of his points for the season in those two weeks. He was a bit more consistent in PPR, but even in that format, he scored 31 percent of his points in those two games.
Hilton had five great weeks with over 100 yards receiving, but he only averaged 38 yards and no TDs in his other 11 games. While he has the talent and potential to put up huge weeks, he is a boom-or-bust type of player who can sink you in many weeks throughout the year.
Second, there is the return of Reggie Wayne to consider. Last year, in games with Wayne before his injury, Hilton averaged 7.7 targets and 59 YPG. Without Wayne in the lineup, Hilton’s average increased to 9.3 targets and 75 YPG.
Hilton’s performance saw a definite bump after Wayne’s season-ending injury in Week 7. Wayne is a reliable, go-to WR who Andrew Luck trusts, and he will be the first look option again this coming season. Assuming health, Wayne will likely take away from Hilton’s targets again in 2014.
Finally, Hilton is a versatile player and had 400 yards after the catch in 2013, but he is more of a deep threat than a possession receiver. Wayne will take many of the underneath routes, leaving Hilton with the deeper targets when open.
However, the Indianapolis Colts acquired Hakeem Nicks this offseason, and he has a similar skillset and speed as Hilton. I expect Nicks to play a similar role for the Colts and further cut into Hilton’s production this year.
Hilton has never been a consistently producing WR, and with both Wayne and Nicks in Indianapolis this year, I think Hilton will be due for regression in 2014. His current ADP is at about the sixth round along with guys like Michael Floyd and Joique Bell. He is overvalued at that price, and I’d much rather have either of those players over a boom-or-bust WR like Hilton.