RB Zac Stacy took over the starting gig for the St. Louis Rams in Week 5 of the 2013 and never let up. To be fair, the competition wasn’t great, but Stacy still proved himself to be good enough to be the starter the remainder of the season. Right now, he is going in the late-first or early-second. If you’re able to get Stacy early third round, I would suggest it, but since that’s not possible, I would avoid him in your draft this year.
I like to make safe picks in rounds one through three. Maybe Running Back A will get you 20 fewer points on the season than Running Back B, who has more upside, but resist the urge to go for upside in the early rounds. Stacy definitely fits the mold of an upside-safe pick for your team, especially since he is being drafted as a RB1. There’s the rumors of Tre Mason being a change-of-pace back, the limited sample size of work, and the division he plays in that all make Stacy a risky pick.
Personally, I don’t think Stacy is a franchise RB. For fantasy purposes, I think he’ll be a low-end RB2 or flex play, but nothing more than that. Mason or Benny Cunningham should cut into his carries, and especially on third downs. They didn’t draft Mason just to have him sit on the bench, so look for him to be in on a lot of passing downs.
I also firmly believe that you shouldn’t overdraft a player off of just one year’s worth of work. There’s a huge list of guys who had one great season then fell of the face of the earth the next year. Again, this goes back to playing it safe with your first three picks.
Stacy also has to run against the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals twice each during the season. All of those teams have great front lines and good defenses as a whole. That’s six games that I wouldn’t feel great about starting someone unless I viewed them as an elite talent.
Stacy could provide some value to the fantasy world this season, but I think there’s a much greater chance he fails expectations while damaging your chances of a championship team if you take him too early. Avoid Stacy and get someone who has proven for more than just one year that they can succeed.