Do you believe?
In life, there are plenty of myths, right? For instance, supposedly, you aren’t supposed to go into the pool right after eating. Instead, people say you should wait 30 minutes or so. I say, depending on the severity of the meal, you eat, sit for five or ten minutes, bada bing, bada boom, you’re back in the pool.
But I digress.
Another myth happens to relate to fantasy football. Many people believe that wide receivers entering their third season in the league tend to breakout the most. They have a clear understanding of the offense, opposing corners, route tree, etc. However, if you look at the numbers, you’ll notice that it’s actually been the sophomore receivers, not the juniors, who are emerging the most. If you look at last year, second-year guys like Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright all broke out. And it’s no coincidence, either. According to ESPN, when they looked at the almost 60 wide receivers to ever record 1,200 career fantasy points, they noticed that the biggest spike in production occurs in year two, as wideouts see a 65 percent increase in fantasy points from their rookie season.
Notable 2nd Year WR Breakouts
Enter Terrance Williams of the Cowboys.
I’m very bullish on the second-year receiver, pegging him as my number 23 fantasy wideout at the moment. Williams showed serious flashes as a rookie last year, hauling in 44 balls for over 700 yards and five scores, despite not being the official number two all year long. And his 16.7 yards per catch ranked fifth among receivers with at least 40 receptions. He played a healthy 650 offensive snaps as a rookie, and that number will surely rise in year two.
The Cowboys are going to be throwing the football all over the field this year. New offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has ranked inside the top-10 in passing attempts in seven of the last eight seasons, and the Dallas defense is going to be arguably the worst in football. Meanwhile, Dez Bryant will be occupying attention from opposing defenses, allowing a big play guy like Williams to see plenty of single coverage. And most importantly, Miles Austin is in Cleveland, making Williams the clear number two in this offense. Via RotoViz and their awesome game splits app, this is very, very good for Williams’ fantasy value.
Williams is a very skilled guy, reminding me a bit of Torrey Smith. Good speed, but also a tall, vertical passing threat in the red zone. His first step after the catch is very good, which is a big reason behind his strong yards per catch totals. A skilled wideout, entering his second season in what should be the league’s pass-heaviest offense?
Yeah. I’m buying.