Fantasy Football Week 4 Projection: New York Jets RB Chris Ivory

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As bye weeks begin in the NFL, the challenge of picking the right replacements for your absent fantasy football stars begins as well. A number of big name running backs will be out this week due to byes, injuries, and suspensions, so if you have Chris Ivory then it’s a safe bet that you are giving him very strong starting consideration. Ivory has worked out well for owners so far, but he has a tough matchup this week.

The New York Jets take on the Detroit Lions at home, and something has to give. The Jets currently rank 2nd in the NFL in rush offense, while the Lions rank 2nd in rush defense. Additionally, they each finished 6th in their respective categories last year, so these numbers are not early season flukes.

The Jets are going to be committed to the run, and it looks like Ivory could be getting a bigger share of the carries. He has clearly outproduced Chris Johnson thus far, gaining 244 yards and scoring two touchdowns on his 38 combined touches. By comparison, Johnson has only managed 146 yards and 1 touchdown with his 41 touches. Rex Ryan acknowledged how well Ivory has played this week and hinted that he could be in for an expanded role.

Ivory has scored 16, 10, and 9 points fantasy points thus far, but his value is capped by Johnson’s presence. Facing a very good Lions defense, Ivory’s fantasy value this week could come down to whether or not he gets in the end zone. The Jets have been awful in the red zone this season, and they haven’t given Ivory as many opportunities as you would expect. Look for that to change in the coming weeks, and Ivory remains the most likely of the Jets’ running back committee to score.

The Jets are going to look to control the game with their rushing attack, and Ivory should be in for an increased workload. Look for him to get about 15-18 combined touches, but the going will be tough, so temper your yardage expectations. This is a difficult matchup, and Ivory’s value is somewhat tied to scoring. However, the Jets backfield split is moving in his direction, and he is a solid RB3 and worth starting for owners who have key players out this week.

Final Week 4 Projection: 16 carries, 62 yards, 1 TD – 1 reception, 7 yards

Greg Sulik is a New York Jets writer for Rant Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GregSulik or add him to your network on Google


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