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Fantasy Baseball Impact: Justin Upton Traded To San Diego Padres

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By @bradberreman24

Justin Upton, San Diego Padres, Fantasy Baseball

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres are making some significant moves this offseason, and Friday’s acquisition of outfielder Justin Upton from the Atlanta Braves fits that bill. Upton set a career-high with 102 RBI in 2014, along with 29 home runs and a slash-line of .270/.342/.491.

Upton is familiar with the National League West, since he played for the Arizona Diamondbacks from 2007-2012, but how will the move to San Diego impact his fantasy value in 2015?

It’s easy to go negative on Upton in fantasy baseball circles upon his landing with the Padres, since Petco Park is notably pitcher-friendly. But based on his tenure with the Diamondbacks he has a solid sample size in his new home park, and we can take something from it as a result.

In 46 career games at Petco Park, Upton has a slash-line of .291/.359/.541 with 10 home runs, 19 RBI and seven stolen bases over 192 plate appearances (172 at-bats). Those batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage numbers compare favorably to his career numbers in those categories (.274/.354/.476), and Upton has hit home runs a bit more frequently at Petco Park (one every 17.2 at-bats) then he has overall in his career (one every 23.1 at-bats). Upton’s Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) at Petco Park (.317) is also not dramatically different than his career BABIP (.332).

The Padres have beefed up their lineup, adding outfielders Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, along with catcher Derek Norris and third baseman Will Middlebrooks via trades over the last week or so. So Upton will not be pitched around easily, as long as everyone stays healthy.

Upton had at least 18 stolen bases  in four straight seasons (2009-2012), but he has just 16 steals over the last two seasons combined. The Braves (128 steal attempts) and Padres (125 steal attempts) were remarkably close in steal attempts last year, so I don’t consider Upton likely to steal double-digit bases next season.

Justin Upton 2015 Projection: .280 batting average, 24 home runs, 85 RBI, 75 runs scored and 8 stolen bases

Brad Berreman is a Columnist at Rant Sports.com. Connect with him on Twitter or Google +.

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