NBA Top Plays for Wednesday, January 11th

By Will Colello

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Point Guard

Damian Lillard $18,100

Lillard missed 6 games over the past couple weeks and returned on Thursday against the Lakers, playing 36 minutes and scoring 45 fantasy points. He then played over 40 minutes against Detroit on Sunday. The Blazers are comfortable stretching Lillard out, and he has a fantastic match up. The Cavs have a great team defense, but can definitely give it up to the point guard. Kyrie Irving is easily the Cavs worst defender, and Lillard will look to take advantage. Lillard is a tad bit cheaper, and this is a game I will look to target a ton in tournaments. Lillard is definitely a tournament play, and I wouldn’t shy away from him in cash games, but do prefer Wall there. Lillard only played 31 minutes last night, so I think his minutes are pretty safe here.

Mike Conley $14,750

The Grizzlies and Thunder faced off a little more than a week ago, and Conley was forced to sit with an injury. He will get his chance to do his damage tonight, in a game that figures to be very fast paced. Westbrook is obvious a world class offensive player, but his defense is not up to par. Conley has been really good since returning, with over 35 fantasy points in 4 of the last 5. He also gives you a slight pricing break, as he is the cheapest of all the star PG’s. If you want to pay down further, you can consider both Marcus Smart and T.J. McConnell if he starts. Conley is made more for cash games, but his upside is just fine in this match up. I think this game stays close, and it will absolutely be high scoring. He will force you to be off the likes of Lillard and Wall, but he will help you pay up elsewhere.

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine $12,800

LaVine is listed as “day-to-day” right now, so definitely keep an eye out for news. If LaVine plays, I love him. He will get the defense of James Harden, who we all know is a horrible on ball defender. LaVine has been playing well lately, and has been able to flash his upside. With that being said, he is pretty inconsistent. He usually switches off good games with Andrew Wiggins, and he is in the better spot here. LaVine was in the mid 14k range just a week or two ago, and has now dropped over 2k. I do expect LaVine to give it a go tonight, but like I said, make sure you keep an eye on twitter if you want to get exposure here.

Tony Allen $8,950

I have only played Tony Allen once this year, and he got me 33 against the Celtics. This game sets up similarly, as the Grizzlies will need a guy to play shutdown defense on either Victor Oladipo or Russell Westbrook. Allen will definitely be on one of them down the stretch, and that will result in him getting big minutes. Allen doesn’t need to get you much, sitting in the high 8k range on DraftDay. I look for Allen to play around 34 minutes tonight, and would be happy with 25 fantasy points. The upside is there for a little bit more, but don’t go looking for anything more than 32.

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Small Forward

LeBron James $19,500

You can go way up to Harden or Westbrook tonight, but, like I assume most others, will pay down and go with LeBron for my high priced play. James gets a match up against the Blazers, who can’t stop anybody. Maurice Harkless, Evan Turner and Al-Farouq Aminu will all take there turns covering LeBron, to no avail. He will do what he wants, and I think this one could stay close, which would result in a monstrous game. The Blazers tend to play fast, and the Cavs have no problem running the floor. You can play LeBron alone, too, as your only exposure to this game. He single handedly offers you a 45 point floor, with a ceiling that exceeds 65. His price is fair, and he will let you pay up at 1 extra spot than Harden or Westbrook would allow.

Otto Porter $12,300

Porter is as consistent as they get, totaling over 30 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4. Wall wants to get Porter involved, and he has run the 2nd unit a few times recently as well. Jae Crowder is a decent defender, but Porter isn’t a guy that will get his points facing up and scoring. He thrives in transition, and corner kick outs from a driving John Wall. The Celtics are horrible rebounders as well, so we could see a few extra out of Porter in that category. His price has came down quite a bit over the past month, and I look for it to go back up soon. He only needs about 27 to hit value tonight, which shouldn’t be too difficult. Porter is a good play in both formats, though I prefer him in cash games.

Power Forward

Kevin Love $17,500

Kevin Love is easily my favorite power forward tonight, facing off with the cupcake interior of the Blazers. Mason Plumlee is great, but he is more of an outside the paint type of guy. He isn’t into the whole defense thing, and can definitely be taken advantage of if they match up. The initial match up on Love will be Al-Farouq Aminu. Aminu is a good defender, but he is way undersized and will get bullied around down low. I look for the Cavs to force the ball to Love, and I will be off of Aminu tonight for that reason. LeBron has done everything he can to get Love involved, and it has definitely paid off. As you can tell, this is a game you will want to target in both cash games and tournaments. He has a floor around 40, with a ceiling over 55 if his shot is falling and the game stays close.

Gorgui Dieng $11,600

Gorgui Dieng is kind of the odd man out in this lineup, along with Ricky Rubio. LaVine, Wiggins and Towns are the stars, and Dieng just follows along and will have a good game if the game stays close. The Rockets aren’t good against power forwards, and Ryan Anderson doesn’t really care about playing low post defense. Dieng tends to get big minutes against fast paced opponents, and I think he will easily hit 28 tonight. He needs about 26 to hit value, and his 3x for tournaments is 33. He could shatter both of those, and he has done it multiple times this year.

Center

Joel Embiid $15,000

Embiid has a ton of upside tonight, and I don’t think Joakim Noah will be able to do anything. Noah is average at best on defense at this point in his career, and Embiid is just towering over him. He will get at lest 28 minutes tonight, and we have seen his minutes stretched to 30. This game will likely stay close, and Embiid is going to get some action against the Knicks. I look for him to get involved early and often, which will result in a nice fantasy point game. With all of that said, I do like him more in tournaments, with a minutes restriction, he is not as safe as a guy like Gortat at their respective prices. Embiid will be the guy I have the most tournament exposure too, and he will be sprinkled in some cash games as well.

Marcin Gortat $12,650

We are going to definitely target this game here, though we only focused on the Washington side in this article. I think you can play a few guys on Boston, but would focus more on the guards. Marcin Gortat is my 2nd favorite center on the day, but probably tops the list for cash games. He gets a consistent 35-42 minutes, and I find it hard to believe he can’t get a double-double against this interior with all of those minutes. The Celtics are horrible against centers, and are the leagues 2nd worst rebounding team. With Avery Bradley out, they become by far the worst. Embiid might have more upside, but I see no way Gortat doesn’t come through with 30. Plus, he is way too cheap across the board. He should be priced 1 or 2k higher.

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