NFL Tickets
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Point Guard
Jrue Holiday $15,000
Jrue Holiday and the Pelicans will take on the Nets tonight, who we all know, sport the worst defense in the NBA. They play extremely fast, and have literally 1 player that is above average at defense. That is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and we won’t have to worry about him covering a point guard. Holiday will see the likes of Sean Kilpatrick and Isaiah Whitehead, who are both young an inexperienced defenders. The Nets have ranked 2nd to last against point guards, in terms of real life and fantasy points allowed. This game should be incredibly high scoring, and definitely expect it to remain close. Holiday is safe in cash games, and certainly has the upside in tournaments to make it interesting. If it wasn’t for the HOU-GS game, I would game stack this one a ton. I will still make sure I do it a few times in tournaments.
Malcolm Brogdon $6,350
Brogdon has been rather consistent, but has still not seen his price come up. Sitting at just 6.3k, he is an elite value. He will be very highly owned on DraftDay, but I am completely willing to eat the chalk. The Magic are not an intimidating match up, and offer up guards that struggle man to man. Brogdon is a good scorer, and I could see him attacking a few times tonight. No matter how you break it down, Brogdon should be able to hit value, if not exceed it. Brogdon is going to be a virtual lock for my cash games, and I don’t see too many paths to failure for him tonight. With so many great options on the high end tonight, you have to consider Brogdon as an elite play.
Shooting Guard
James Harden $25,000
Harden comes in at the maximum possible price, 25k. DraftDay was very smart here, as this match up is exceptional. Sure, Klay Thompson is a pretty good on ball defender. But can he cover James Harden? No. In the last 3 times these teams faced off, Harden put up FP point totals of 71, 55 and 52. He had a smaller usage when they played, compared to where he sits now. He now has a part in every play, and with Clint Capela back, his assist numbers should be steady as well. The Warriors play extremely fast, which let’s their opponents get a lot of open shots and layups in transition. Harden is my favorite play of the night, and I will do what I can to get him in a lot of my lineups. He might be expensive, but could also be necessary to get a win. I definitely see the merit for a fade as this game could blowout, but I will be on the other side of it.
Lou Williams $11,650
Sweet Lou has been kind of up and down this year, but it looks like the shot is falling right now. He has 41 and 38 fantasy point totals over his last 2, and he should make it 3 in a row over 38 tonight. The Pacers don’t have any good SG defenders, throwing Glenn Robinson and Monta Ellis there for the majority of the game. Williams will be able to dice both of those guys up, and get to the rim as well. Both of these teams play pretty fast, so I could see this game finishing with a combined score over 220.Williams may come off the bench, but he is the main scorer on the team, and his minutes are secure. Williams can be played in both cash games and tournaments.
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Small Forward
Kevin Durant $22,450
I expect this game to stay close, and Durant is the best player on the Warriors. He has been a monster this season, and will have another fantastic game. Trevor Ariza is a fine defender, but won’t stop Durant. The Rockets have been below average against small forwards this year, and that is mostly due to the increased pace the Rockets play at. This game will be insanely fast, and I could see the merit in a full game stack. Harden and Durant are both a little over priced, but could be a little under owned because of it. Harden is still my preferred play, but Durant is no slouch of an option.
Al-Farouq Aminu $9,100
Aminu is just a solid player. He plays good minutes, he shoots the ball, and he racks up the peripherals. This makes him safe and at just 9k, he needs 25 to hit value. He should be able to do that with ease against the 76ers, who are not very good against power forwards. Aminu has been a big part of the offense lately, and has shot the ball as often as Mason Plumlee. He may not have crazy upside, but his price is low and the production will be there. I do like him more in cash games, but I am perfectly fine with him in tournaments as well. Small forward has a lot of options today, so you will have to be right in tournaments.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis $22,800
Man, this is a fantastic spot for tournaments. Anthony Davis entered last nights game as questionable, and exited with 29 minutes and 46 fantasy points. When you combine that with James Harden and his match up, AD should go very under owned. An under owned Anthony Davis against the Nets sounds like a lot of fun to me. With that being said, I still do prefer James Harden in the high end range, but you have to consider Davis. He has just as much upside as Harden, and does come in considerably cheaper. He will see a lot of Trevor Booker and Brook Lopez, and neither of them are very good at defense. They also don’t care very much, so Davis could take advantage there as well. Any way you look at this, Davis has a ton of upside and can win you a tournament, easily.
Ersan Ilyasova $9,750
Ilyasova just saw a price drop, and I will go right back on him. He has been one of the more consistent players this season, and the price is way too low. Ilyasova has over 20 fantasy points in 20 straight, and has been over 30 in 6 of the last 10. The 76ers rely on his perimeter shooting, and he has no problem shooting the ball a lot. He is safe for around 30 minutes tonight, and could get to 36. The safety is obviously there, but so is the upside. Ilyasova has been over 40 a few times this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it here. The Blazers will throw Aminu at PF, who is a bit undersized compared to “Ghostface” Ilyasova. You can play him in both cash games and tournaments tonight. At under 10k, he will be a staple in my cash games.
Center
Joel Embiid $16,100
Embiid is just a monster. There is not too much more that needs to be said. He is a top 3 center in this league, and has a really nice match up with the Blazers. Plumlee is not a big body, and he does not have fun banging down low. He will have his hands full with Embiid tonight, who will likely just punish him in the paint. Embiid is easily my top C on the board, and I will do my best to get 80% exposure. His upside is still there, and we have seen his minutes cap extended in some circumstances. This game is one I will look to target, and it should go overlooked.
Mason Plumlee $12,850
On the other side of this match up, there is definitely some value in Plumlee. While Embiid is going to be a handful for him, it will work the other way as well. Plumlee plays a lot at the top of the key, and should be able to use his quickness to pass around Embiid and get a ton of assists and points. The safety isn’t quite there for Plumlee, but the upside definitely is. He has been over 50 a couple times this year, and this could be a game where he gets there. I am not predicting that, but would say this is one of the better possible match ups for him.
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