*It makes sense to mostly stand pat at the skill spots. Jamaal Charles is coming back at running back and while adding a quality change-of-pace back at #2 would have value, that back would have to be better than Jackie Battle and at a cap-friendly price. At the wide receiver spot, I’d like to see Jonathan Baldwin get the chance to really emerge as the kind of game-breaker the offense needs opposite Dwayne Bowe.

*Tight end is a huge area of need, with Leonard Pope representing a significant liability.

*The offensive line needs upgrades, particularly at center and at right tackle. Addressing the guard spot wouldn’t hurt either, although given the needs across the line that might need to be deferred for a year. For a team that wants to build an offense around game management at quarterback and running the ball, getting an offensive line that can fire off the ball is an imperative.

*Nose tackle is a need spot, as a 3-4 defense relies on this position to tie up 2-3 blockers at a crack. It’s the only real weakness in an otherwise solid front seven.

*In the initial posts below I said strong safety should be addressed. This is a case of writer stupidity, as readers correctly called me out and noted that Eric Berry, a Pro Bowler in 2010, will be back and healthy next season. Overall, the secondary would have to be considered a strength.

The offensive line should be considered Priority #1.This is an area that I prefer to see GM’s address through free agency rather than the draft—at least through high draft picks. Because the success of offensive lineman often depends on how well they function within a specific scheme, you can get a good group together without using a high pick. Nose tackle would be my #2 priority and #3 is tight end. Although once it comes time for the draft, the “best player available” can and should end up trumping specific need.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ROSTER REVIEW
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Kicker/Punter

Kansas City has issues at punter, where Derek Colquitt was the worst in the division. The coverage team helped make up a little bit of the loss and the Chiefs’ gap on net punt average isn’t as severe as it is on the gross, but either way they’re fourth in the AFC West. Kicking isn’t much better. While Ryan Succop showed the best range of his career in hitting all three attempts from 50-plus, he was only 7-of-12 in the much more critical range of 40-49. The franchise that lost a playoff game almost singlehandedly because of Lin Elliot back in 1995 should understand better than anyone how important these spots are in crucial games.

Denver’s got a similar problem at kicker. Matt Prater’s got a booming leg, and that was never more evident than his dramatic  59-yarder to set up overtime, and ultimately a win, over Chicago. But he’s less than 50 percent in the 40s and a conservative offense like the Broncos’ can’t survive on that. Britton Colquitt  does a solid job at punter.

San Diego lost Pro Bowl kicker Nate Kaeding to start the season, but Nick Novak came on and did a credible job. Novak, who hadn’t worked in the NFL since having the KC gig back in 2008, was respectable in the 40s and had some leg in the 50s. He should pick up a job somewhere when Kaeding, who lacks booming 50-plus range, but is lights-out everywhere else, returns to duty next year. Punter Mike Scrifes had a 47.2 gross average, but, unsurprisingly, a Norv Turner-led special teams gives a good chunk of that away on coverage and the Bolts are only third in the AFC West where it counts, in net average.

For years, I’ve wondered why finding a kicker is so hard for NFL and major college teams. Just go to Europe, scour the soccer fields and bring someone back. I don’t know if that’s how Florida State found Sebastian Janikowski in Poland, but it’s had the desired effect. Still going strong with Oakland, Janikowski is a perfect combination of ruthless consistency inside 50 and dynamic range outside it, highlighted by his record-tying 63-yarder. Punter Shane Lechler has the strongest leg in the division, averaging better than 50 yards a pop on the gross, but the opponent does pick up ten yards on the return. While some of that can be attributed to the longer run the coverage team has to make—and Oakland’s gross average is still best in the West, you would still like to see the punt cover team shave a couple yards off those returns.

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Tamba Hali is one of the game’s best, coming up with 12 sacks this past season, defending the run well and growing into a respectable cover man against short passes. Hali completed a transition from playing defensive end in a 4-3 to his role in Kansas City’s 3-4. Skeptics, including me, doubted he could do it, but he’s turned himself into a factor that every offensive coordinator must account for on every play. Justin Houston stepped into the spot on the other side and the rookie registered 5.5 sacks.

San Diego, the other 3-4 defense in the division brings bring names in Shaun Phillips and Antwan Barnes to the table, but Phillips is 30 years old and his best years are well behind him, getting only 3.5 sacks in 2011. Barnes is a strong pass rusher, with 11 sacks, although his 41 tackles is well short of Hali’s 66, suggesting problems defending the run. ESPN’s Scouts Inc. confirms this, saying that Barnes can have difficulty with a counter moves and shedding blocks when he can’t beat you by speed alone.

The 4-3 alignments of Denver and Oakland don’t allow as much freewheeling activity for the outside linebackers, but it didn’t stop the Broncos’ Von Miller from being one of the league’s elite rookies, as he got 11.5 sacks and 64 tackles. Miller joined forces with a solid player in D.J. Williams, whose 90 tackles demonstrate a nose for the ball. Williams needs work on pass coverage, but overall John Fox has to be happy with the combination he has in Denver.

Oakland’s Aaron Curry is a good run defender and the scouts give him high marks for his pursuit angles and recognition, while critiquing his pass coverage skills. With zero sacks, Curry is not a factor in pressuring the quarterback. That role belongs to Kamerion Wimbley, who had seven sacks and did a nice job defending the run. Overall, the Raider pair won’t dazzle you, but they’re solid and steady—perfect for a 4-3 scheme that relies on the defensive ends for the spectacular work.

Kansas City is going to need better play at this spot, simply because of the caliber of talent available in the division, but with Houston showing promise in his rookie year and Hali already being a top-shelf player, the best course is just to let Houston develop and see where that goes.

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The Chiefs’ primary defense is the 3-4, so they have two linebackers on the inside. Derrick Johnson is a top-caliber player, racking up 131 tackles to lead all AFC West linebackers. ESPN’s Scouts Inc. takes note of his tremendous athletic ability, but really zeroes in on his outstanding recognition of blocking schemes and the disciplined angles he takes to the ball. The 29-year old Johnson is both talented and fundamentally sound. Playing alongside him is 24-year old Jovan Belcher, who is a good supporting piece. He wins the scouts praise for his pursuit angles and coverage drops. Combined with position on the inside, it’s enough to make up for a lack of great range.

San Diego also runs the 3-4, and veteran Takeo Spikes is the anchor, posting 106 tackles at the age of 35. His primary strength is defending the run, which is fine at this position and his experience has offset any talent decline in the aging process. On the other side is Donald Butler, who completed a promising rookie season with 96 tackles, a stat that suggests he may be ready to assume Spikes’ role as the top dog when the time comes.

Denver and Oakland both play 4-3 schemes and as a result it’s difficult to draw precise comparisons between the Broncos’ Joe Mays & the Raiders’ Rolando McClain with their counterparts in Kansas City and San Diego. The linebackers playing in the 3-4 have the advantage in making tackles, since the whole premise of the 3-4 funnels plays to the second level. Consequently, neither Mays nor McClain broke 80 tackles this past season.

What we can say is that McClain is clearly the superior of the two 4-3 middle linebackers and we can at least be confident in saying he’d do very well in the 3-4. Scouts grade him just a notch behind Johnson, noting his excellent football instincts, sound technique and sure tackling. Mays is more of a stopgap player, who can defend the run at the point of attack, but has problems in space and in pass coverage.

Kansas City has good players at this spot who compare very favorably to their division rivals and neither one has hit 30. Looks like a good situation from this vantage point.

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Dwayne Bowe gives Kansas City a solid, if unspectacular #1 receiver. His 81 catches were easily the highest in the AFC West. While his 14.3 yards-per-catch average doesn’t blow you away, it’s still solid. ESPN’s Scouts Inc. likes Bowe’s physical strength, both breaking tackles and making plays in traffic. He’s flanked by Steve Breaston who’s become a good #2 receiver since his days in part-time duty at Arizona. With 61 catches, he was third in the division and joins Bowe in giving KC a pair of tough receivers over the middle. The third option is Jonathan Baldwin, who saw limited time in his rookie year. Because of Dexter McCluster’s pass-catching skills out of the backfield a third receiver isn’t strictly necessary, but Baldwin has tremendous natural talent and size and could become the deep threat this offense could use to loosen things up.

Denver didn’t win the division on the strength of its passing and it shows not only the stats of the wide receivers, but in the scouts’ evaluations. Demaryius Thomas’ polish in route-running is panned, both at the snap and in making adjustments. Eddie Royal doesn’t have great size at 5’10” and can get muscled by physical corners. Eric Decker is the best of the trio, running good routes and having the strength to break tackles after the catch, but that alone won’t suffice for a #1 target.

San Diego, unsurprisingly, has the deepest and most productive corps. Whether that’s due more to Philip Rivers than the talent of Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd & Co., is another matter, given Rivers had the best year of his career in 2010 when everyone was hurt or holding out. The receivers were healthy this year and Rivers struggled. Nonetheless, Jackson is praised by scouts for being deceptively fast and knowing how to use his size. He’ll be an attractive target on the free agent market. Floyd’s YPC is 19.9, the best of any regular receiver in the AFC West, although at age 30, we’ll have to see what happens to his speed. Veteran Patrick Crayton and young Vincent Brown are the complementary pieces and I think Rivers’ track record suggests he could do just as well with either one in the starting lineup, should the team not re-sign Jackson. And given Jackson’s history of clashing with the front office, his departure would seem imminent.

Oakland gets a lot of catches from Darrius Heyward-Bey, whose 64 receptions puts him in between Bowe and Breaston at the top of the division. But he’s more of a possession receiver, rather than a deep threat, and the Raiders need 23-year old Denarius Moore to be more consistent. They could use Jacoby Ford coming into his own and becoming a bigger part of the offense at age 24.

By comparison, Kansas City looks pretty good at this spot. A deep threat wouldn’t hurt, but the potential of Baldwin combined with everything else gives the Chiefs as good a receivers’ corps as anyone.

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No team is deeper or more talented at running back in the AFC West than Kansas City. Jamaal Charles missed almost all of this season, but is expected back for 2012, and the young back delivered a 1,120 yard season in 2009 and went off for 1400-plus in the division title campaign of 2010. ESPN’s Scouts Inc, loves his explosion through the hole, which makes up for his being slightly undersized. Charles is also an effective receiver.

Jackie Battle was thrust into a bigger role than is ideal. He averaged 4 ypg this past season, but all things being equal, you would prefer for him not to be the main back. With Charles coming back he won’t have to, and Kansas City will have an effective #2 runner. And if that’s not enough, Dexter McCluster has game-changing capability when he get the ball in space. The 23-year old has work to do in terms of getting more polished in finding the hole and running pass routes, but with a deep backfield in front of him, he’s got time work that out. Thomas Jones was a perfect fit in 2010 as the number two back behind Charles when he compiled nearly 900 yards, but injuries slowed him in 2011 and as a free agent, he doesn’t appear likely to be back.

Denver showed its own depth at the position when Knowshon Moreno went down and Williis McGahee stepped up with almost 1,200 yards. But this was McGahee’s first productive year since 2007 and he is 30 years old. Can he really be expected to do it again? And Moreno, after a productive rookie season in 2009, has declined each year since due to injury problems. Denver’s got some issues here that deserve talking about, although that would prevent a 24-hour talk radio obsession with Tim Tebow.

San Diego got Ryan Mathews established as their main back this year after nagging injuries limited him in 2010. Mathews ran for 1,019 yards and will be a reliable back in the Charger offense, but whether he’s durable enough to be the featured back in an offense that really relies on the running game is another matter.

Oakland could have a devastating 1-2 punch with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. McFadden is explosive, both on cutback runs and as a receiver, while Bush can muscle between the tackles. The latter showed he could handle featured back duties when injuries limited McFadden to seven games, but this offense won’t find its potential unless McFadden stays healthy. Next year will be a key checkpoint in his career to see if 2011 was bad luck, of the player just lacks durability.

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Quarterback

Quarterback is an offseason issue, at least in some degree with most franchises, and Kansas City is no exception. Do you go with Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton or neither? Head coach Romeo Crennel has all but said that it’s likely to be Cassel, if only because Orton’s coming free agency will drive up his price tag.

The answer to whether Kansas City can win with Cassel is obvious—they already have won with him, as Crennel pointed out. Whether the wins come because of him or in spite of him is another question entirely. The AFC West has been the division that seems bound and determined to challenge conventional wisdom about quarterback primacy. The last two division winners—the Chiefs in 2010 and the Broncos this year—did it with defense and the running game.

Cassel is coming off a year that was rocky throughout and ended in injury, and the numbers reflect that. His completion percentage (59.5) ranked third in the division, ahead of only Tim Tebow—though in fairness, Cassel was only 3.4 points behind first-place Philip Rivers, while leading Tebow by thirteen percentage points. The Kansas City starter is clearly more comparable to Rivers or Carson Palmer in Oakland than he is to the oft-maligned Tebow. And Cassel’s 6.4 yards per pass is tied with Tebow, even though Denver’s offense has a reputation for going over the top more often.

Rivers remains the class of AFC West quarterbacks, even on a year that was decidedly not his past. He finished with a QB rating of 88.7, but at age 30 there’s a lot of good years left in him and his demonstrated ability to make the offense work with virtually anyone at receiver will keep San Diego’s attack on the move.

Oakland is set going into next year with Carson Palmer, but at 32, with a track record of injury problems, the Raiders can’t be to cavalier. They got Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft and it would be ideal if Palmer could give them a 2-3 year window where they could both win games and develop the future.

I’ve always liked Cassel, going to back when he was stepping in for Tom Brady in 2008 and of the three years he’s been a starter in the NFL, two have been good ones. When you combine bringing Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki back on offense, and put a healthy Cassel into the mix, I think he’ll be fine.
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Kansas City is solid at the corners with 25-year old Brandon Flowers grading out very strongly at ESPN’s Scouts Inc. Even though Flowers can mismatched by bigger receivers due to his 5’9” frame, but he plays bigger, jamming receivers at the line of scrimmage and plays the ball well. On the opposite side is Brandon Carr. While not a lockdown corner, Carr is a solid #2 man also able to play physical as his man comes off the ball and provide run support. The scouts would like to see him be less susceptible to double moves.

Denver’s also strong here with one terrific corner and another who’s good enough to be #2. Champ Bailey is still one of the league’s best at age 33, using improved instincts and knowledge to compensate for any loss of speed. Andre Goodman is also 33, and as another corner who’s less than 6’0” he can be beaten with a bigger receiver and Goodman doesn’t have the same ball skills and physical style as Flowers. What Goodman does win praise for his agility, making him especially effective on shorter routes and his willingness to play the run.

Quentin Jammer was once the class of the AFC West at this spot and the San Diego corner is still pretty good, but 32, his own years are starting to catch up with him. He’s still provides excellent run support and his cover skills are there, but he is downgraded—just a little bit—for being less effective at closing the deal with an interception. Antoine Cason is emerging as the top corner at Charger Park these days, with great cover skills. At 25, he still needs better upper body strength, not just for run support, but to leverage himself at the line of scrimmage.

Oakland isn’t bad, but the Raiders are clearly the weakest in the West, relying on Litto Sheppard and Stanford Routt. The former is praised as an intelligent player, but he can’t match up with bigger receivers, while Routt has all the tools, but needs to learn how to harness it. At age 28, how much more upside can there be?

As you look into 2012, you can make a good argument for Denver and San Diego’s corners being better than Kansas City’s, but you can make the same good argument the other way. More important is that if you look at the next 4-5 years, there’s no question it’s the Chiefs who have the best long-term stability at this spot.

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Jon McGraw is listed as the starting strong safety on the Kansas City depth chart right now, although he has played both over the course of his ten-year NFL career. The elder statesman of AFC West strong safeties, he doesn’t have really good speed in running with a receiver in the slot, thus leaving the Chiefs vulnerable to an offense that spreads the field. His problems tackling in the open field are just as acute. In short, this is a weak spot for the Chiefs.

Denver’s David Bruton is still just 24 years old and according to ESPN’s Scouts Inc., has work to do in route recognition. However the same scouts praise his ability to read blocking schemes, a reason he’s more effective as an extra defender against the run than he is against the pass. This does leave Denver vulnerable to a tight end that can release quickly and win a speed battle against Bruton.

The scouts give the highest grade in the division to Oakland’s Tyvon Branch, although not by a lot (on a scale of 1-100 all four AFC West starters rate in the 60s). But even here, he is considered a strong safety whose greatest value lies in defending the run rather than the pass. If this review were done for the purpose of grading the Raiders we might note that Branch may be miscast on a team already stocked in the front seven but needing help in pass coverage.

San Diego’s Steve Gregory lacks physical size, at 5’11” 195, the only starter at this spot under the 6’0” and 200 lb thresholds, and his speed isn’t anything to wow you. But the scouts do praise his work in recognizing routes and reading the eyes of the quarterback. Because of his size, he’s a liability against the run, but his smarts make him an effective cover man underneath.

If Kansas City had a young starter at strong safety it might be worth their while to wait and see how he developed, given the general lack of talent among their rivals. But with McGraw a veteran with no hope of improvement and a history of injuries, this is a spot that has to draw the attention of Scott Pioli in free agency and the draft.

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Kendrick Lewis completed his second year in the NFL, and the KC starter looks like a keeper. The professionals at ESPN’s Scouts Inc give him props for his grasp of zone coverages and credit his willingness and ability to step up and play the run. An area of weakness is jumping on the first move too quickly, a problem that should be addressed with experience. You would also like to see more than three interceptions, although here too, as Lewis gains experience, he should able to sneak off with more picks. Denver is in a similar situation, making a commitment to Quinton Carter, who enters his second year with work to do in playing the ball.

Oakland and San Diego are both very strong at this spot. The Raiders’ Michael Huff doesn’t get interceptions, but he has very good athletic ability and is solid in run support. Earlier in his career the 28-year old Huff had been panned for jumping on the run to quickly and being vulnerable to play-action, but experience has made those criticisms a thing of the past. In San Diego, Eric Weddle grades out higher than anyone, playing well in run support and his seven interceptions are a testament to his ability to read the quarterback and get to the football.

The overall AFC West landscape makes this an intriguing position. On the one hand, while Lewis is good, you have to put him third in a four-team division. Does GM Scott Pioli need to look at an upgrade? On the flip side, Lewis is four years younger than Weddle and five years younger than Huff. You can make an equally credible case that Lewis will catch up to his rivals within the next couple years as he gains experience. I would hold to the latter view and believe Kansas City should stand pat here.

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