ACC Predictions: North Carolina Tar Heels
This is part 10 of a 12 piece series examining all 12 ACC school’s 2012 schedule and making predictions based on returning players and incoming talent. Today we focus on the North Carolina Tar Heels.
UNC has had its fair share of off the field issues in recent years. The Tar Heels have had to deal with an NCAA investigation, NCAA sanctions and coaching changes. North Carolina is serving a one year bowl ban in 2012. This means that North Carolina can’t win the ACC’s Coastal Division, and thus can’t compete in the ACC Championship game. UNC will play 12 games this season and that is it.
The Tar Heels hired Larry Fedora as their new head coach after last season, and UNC is hoping that Fedora has a good first season at the helm (even if there won’t be any postseason play). The good news for Fedora is that he has a team that was 7-6 last year and a very good quarterback in Bryn Renner. Renner threw for 2,769 yards and 23 touchdowns last season. UNC’s passing game was the only category in which the Tar Heels were above average (the passing attack was 36th in the country last year). If UNC is going to have a good season then it will all fall on Renner and the passing game .
North Carolina starts out its season with a home game vs. Elon. This is the closest game UNC has to a sure thing in 2012. This is a game that won’t be close and Larry Fedora will have his first Tar Heels win (predicted UNC record 1-0). UNC will then start it’s ACC schedule with a game against Wake Forest in week 2. Wake is going to be a solid team in 2012 and this game will be competitive. Wake will win this game because they have the home field advantage (UNC record 1-1).
Louisville will host the Tar Heels in week 3. These two teams met last year and UNC was able to beat them by a score of 14 to 7. Louisville is not a bad team, but they aren’t great either. This will be a close game but Carolina should come out on top late in the game (UNC record 2-1). North Carolina will then host East Carolina in week 4. East Carolina has built a winning program in recent years. UNC was able to win this game last year at East Carolina. The Tar Heels will win this game in 2012 (UNC record 3-1).
Carolina’s final out of conference game comes at home against Idaho. The Vandals aren’t a good team. They finished last in the WAC last season with a 2-10 record. This game won’t be close with the Tar Heels on the winning side (UNC record 4-1). The Tar Heels then host Coastal division juggernaut Virginia Tech. These two played last season and the Hokies won 24-21. The game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Tech dominated for most of the game, but UNC scored real early in the game and really late to make the game close. It won’t be so close this year; Virginia Tech is just too good (UNC record 4-2).
UNC’s next game comes against the Miami Hurricanes. Miami won this game last year by six points, but the game was in Chapel Hill. It will be in Coral Gables this year. Miami just has too much talent for the Tar Heels to handle (UNC record 4-3). Carolina will then travel to play archrival Duke. Duke is far from a good team and the Blue Devils haven’t won this game since 2003. The streak will continue in UNC’s favor (UNC record 5-3).
The Tar Heels will then host rival North Carolina State. The Wolf Pack will be the best team from the state of North Carolina this season. N.C. State is simply a better team and the final score will reflect that (UNC record 5-4). Georgia Tech will then visit Chapel Hill after a UNC bye week. The Yellow Jackets don’t do well against teams that have more than a week to prepare for their triple option, but it doesn’t mean an automatic loss. Last season UNC lost this game by a touchdown. Despite the fact that this is a home game for UNC and they will have over a week to prepare for Jackets’ head coach Paul Johnson’s triple option offense, Georgia Tech will come out on top (UNC record 5-5).
Carolina finishes off the season with two winnable games. The first is a Thursday night game on the road against the Virginia Cavaliers. UVa is replacing a lot of players this season, but this game is late in the year and most of the replacements will have gotten into the swing of things. Home field advantage will determine the outcome of this game (UNC record 5-6). The Tar Heels final game in 2012 is a home game against Maryland. The Terrapins were the worst team in the ACC last season (2-10 record). Maryland won’t be any better this season and this is UNC’s bowl game. This game won’t even be close (UNC record 6-6).
North Carolina will finish the season with a 6-6 record, and a 2-6 record in ACC play. It isn’t a great season, but it will be considered a good season in Larry Fedora’s first season as coach.
To see other predictions: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9
