Did you grab either Aaron Hill or Adam Lind at the start of the 2009 season?
If you did, you were probably able to snag one or both for pennies on the dollar in drafts (or even better – as waiver wire pick-ups in April), and odds are that you went deep into your fantasy league’s playoffs.
Heading into the 2010 season the secret was out and the price attached to both Lind and Hill was sky high. Unfortunately for anyone willing to pay the new inflated price, the Toronto sluggers have left you to fall flat on your face.
So what gives?
PART ONE: Aaron Hill
[picappgallerysingle id="8974298"]If you fantasy managers bought into Aaron Hill for this season expecting him to match his 2009 numbers, you deserve to be toiling in the basement of your fantasy pool.
Simply put, Aaron is not the offensive monster that he appeared to be last year, and he will never give you an annual 100-35-110-.285 line out of the 2 hole – that air is reserved for people with cool names like Chase. For those of you who have held on to Hill, don’t despair, the pop is real, but keep in mind that last year’s career year was just that – a career year.
That said, if you buy into Aaron expecting 80-20-80-.270 (and as importantly, pay for such) then you shouldn’t have anything to worry about. He’s a much better hitter than his current .183 AVG would suggest (especially considering his 24:31 BB/K ratio) and he’s still clearing the fences at a reasonable rate (on pace for 23 HRs). With a little better luck with balls in play, Hill should right the ship by the All-Star Break and finish the season strong.
Recommendation: If you’ve got Hill, be patient. If you don’t, try and get Aaron on the cheap from whoever has him. It’s likely that a skittish manager might let him go for an early season standout like Casey McGahee or Kelly Johnson, or maybe even Ty Wiggington.
It’s more than likely that Aaron Hill will never post last year’s numbers again, but for the remainder of the season, you can expect a 40-12-45-.270 baseline – which is not too shabby from the second base position!
Looking ahead to next year’s draft, when considering your picks, don’t make the mistake of overpaying for Hill like many fantasy managers did this year – Aaron has value, but that value resides close to the 75th spot, not the 40th.
Part two, discussing Adam Lind, will launch tomorrow (June 12th).