When Pre-Season Predictions Go Wrong Part One: Colorado Rockies

By Rich MacLeod

Normally, I take pride in my pre-season predictions for sports. I’ve nailed it on several occasions, for example, when I said the Texas Rangers would win the American League Pennant prior to the 2010 season or the time I accurately predicted the Green Bay Packers Super Bowl Championship. But, as a writer, sometimes you have to admit that you’re wrong… This is one of those times.

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That’s right, not only did I pick the Colorado Rockies to make the postseason, not only did I pick them to win the division, I picked them to make another incredible run towards the Fall Classic. This was a mistake. I mean, woah. First of all, the Rockies have absolutely no pitching. As a team their ERA is 5.07, that’s dead last in the National League. If you go into their pitching deeper, not one of their starters has an ERA of under 4, in fact, the lowest ERA of any of their starters belongs to rookie Drew Pomeranz (0-2, 4.70) who has recently been optioned back to AAA. To think that a team who had dreams of contention is actually relying on 49-year-old pitcher Jamie Moyer is a joke in of itself. At times Moyer has shown that he still can pitch but his numbers are not good so far as he’s posted a 2-4 record along with a 5.99 ERA. Five pitchers for Colorado have (or had before demotion) ERAs over 7. Over 7! It’s safe to say that their pitching has not been good, and in that type of ballpark if you don’t have guys who can pitch their, you’re in trouble.

The Rockies offense, while potent at times, has not been anything to write home about either. Todd Helton, the heart and soul of this Rockies franchise, is batting .228. Chris Nelson, a starting third baseman because they have no one else to play there, is hitting .219 with no home runs. Former Chicago Cubs Rookie of the Year candidate Tyler Colvin has actually been one of their better hitters in limited opportunities (.291, 3 HR, 11 RBI) but he has not been on the field much. It’s no question that the Colorado Rockies have big time talent in guys like Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki but the two of them just simply are not good enough to carry this team to a postseason berth.

Colorado sits in 4th place of the not-so-stellar National League West with a 17-27 record. Although they weren’t the trendiest of pre-season picks, I was not the only one to put some stock into this club. There’s no question that Jim Tracy’s seat has gotten hotter as the weeks have gone on and while we don’t know that a coaching change can help this team, it’s worked in the past. Remember that Tracy got his crack at being manager in 2009 when the Rockies were struggling and let go of manager Clint Hurdle. The same fate may lie for Jim Tracy if he cannot get this team to right the ship. Even if Colorado does figure it out and can be more competitive throughout the season, it appears that I made a mistake in choosing them to go to the World Series. I’ll stand by that pick all year, because I refuse to hop on and off of bandwagons, but I’m not exactly confident in it.

This is the first part of my ‘When Pre-Season Predictions Go Wrong’ piece, to read Part Two, click here.

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