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Rant MLB Columnist Roundtable (12/1): Which Team Made The Best Move At 3B?

Pablo Sandoval MLB Free Agency

Kelley L. Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Although you might think that a player signing the biggest deal in MLB history would be the biggest news in the offseason thus far, the hot corner has actually taken up most of the spotlight thanks to a flurry of recent moves. One of these was widely anticipated, and the others … well, maybe not so much.

Of course, baseball team-building is a value game these days, and you probably asked yourself “which team made the most valuable transaction?” Well, to break down the moves and the outlook for the quartet of AL teams that moved the needle with them, I got together with Rant sabermetric columnists Drew Jenkins and Brad Faber to chat a little bit about a certain panda, bluebirds, and whether a non-elite player is worth a nine-figure contract:

Thom: Let’s get right into it. The Boston Red Sox are clearly going through as aggressive a rebuild as we’ve seen in some time. Was Pablo Sandoval someone they had to sign this early in offseason to compliment Hanley Ramirez?

Drew: To me, signing Sandoval for that much money this early made little sense. I think that they needed an upgrade at third and and I like that they added a bat, but Sandoval is one of the most overrated players on the open market, and I don’t think giving him that much money was smart, especially with Chase Headley still out there.

Brad: Clearly, the plan to go into the future with Xander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks on the left side of the infield didn’t work as well as planned, and it was clear that they needed to do something. Panda will provide an upgrade at third, but five years, $95 million seems a little steep for a player who has only been worth 2-3 fWAR each year since 2012.

Thom: Headley is an interesting name, and I agree that he would have been at more savvy signing. He has outperformed Sandoval in fWAR significantly over the last two years, and the defense he brings would have been a real big difference-maker at a lower cost. Teams still aren’t paying premium dollars for defense, and to me, this is one example of a team paying for buzz and playoff performance rather than looking at a longer sample size.

Drew: Agreed. I think signing Sandoval was a reactionary move from the Red Sox after they struggled this past season. Headley is clearly the better player, and he is really not even that much worse of a hitter.

Brad: He has an impressive postseason resume, but aside from his 2009 and 2011 seasons, his regular season numbers are not too eye-popping.

Drew: Everyone gets caught up on Sandoval’s 2011 season when he posted a 149 wRC+. The fact of the matter is that he is a slightly above-average hitter who plays average defense, and not much more.

Thom: Headley has been worth 8.4 Off over 2013-2014, and Panda has a 10.4 mark over that span. Neither are elite offensive producers at this point, and to me, even if the best-case scenario happens, there are other issues with Sandoval that’s going to make that deal look bad in say, a couple of years.

Drew: I think a big part of the reason for giving him such a large deal was the fact that he is just 28, which is young for a free agent. Still, he’s had so many condition issues in the past, you have to wonder if he is going to age faster than some.

Thom: For what it’s worth though, it’s clear that the team is going for an offense-first approach to the offseason, and Fangraphs has them projected as the top offense in the league in 2015.

Brad: Plus, the Red Sox really haven’t had too much offense from third base since Middlebrooks’ rookie season in 2012, or perhaps when Kevin Youkilis was there in 2011.

Drew: It does make sense from an offensive standpoint, but to me their offense is good enough they didn’t necessarily need it. If anything, their pitching is so in flux that they could use some defense to help them out. Still, it is ignorant to sign a player for so much money when he clearly isn’t a better value, even if you are going with an offense-first strategy.

Thom: So, it sounds like none of us like this Sandoval deal very much. How long before Red Sox nation regrets the contact? Let’s set the over/under at two years.

Drew: I’m going with the over. I think his production in the first two or three years will be fine, especially offensively. I just think that as he inevitably declines once he hits his 30s, they’ll realize it was a mistake.

Brad: Same here. As evidenced by his postseason resume, he seems to like the big stage and may rise to the occasion — initially. Things might start to get messy after he hits 30, however.

Thom: Speaking of the big stage, let’s move on to the Red Sox’s AL East rival Toronto Blue Jays, who made a blockbuster deal for Josh Donaldson in hopes of finally getting there and playing postseason baseball. Personally, I love this deal from just about every angle. Your thoughts?

Drew: I agree with the sentiment. From the Blue Jays standpoint, it is a huge upgrade. They were close to contending in 2014 and their only significant loss this offseason is Melky Cabrera. Donaldson and Russell Martin, plus some contribution from the team’s top prospects, could push them into contention.

Brad: I was truly surprised by the Donaldson move. After the A’s dealt Cespedes, I didn’t expect to see them trade another one of their top bats and clubhouse guys. It’s a great move for the Blue Jays though.

Drew: I also think it works out from the A’s standpoint. Lawrie is solid, and he has the upside to be a bit better than he’s been. They also get two serviceable starters, and while neither Kendall Graveman or Sean Nolin are aces, they could be decent, cheap pieces for years to come. Franklin Barreto can be a star, and while he is way off, that was a great pickup by the A’s.

Thom: The surprise for me is that the A’s were so good for so long this past season, and while Lawrie has all the talent in the world, going from the third-most valuable player in MLB by fWAR over the last two years to Lawrie is a significant downgrade.
On top of that, Donaldson is still under team control for four years. After going for it in 2014, you’d think Billy Beane and co. would be looking for a piece to push the team over the top instead.

Drew: I do think it is a downgrade right now for the A’s, but in terms of long-term value, it could tip in their favor. Lawrie will be significantly cheaper than Donaldson when they both hit their later arbitration years, and I think that was also something the A’s considered.

Brad: It appears that the A’s are definitely in rebuilding/retooling mode right now, and banking on a Billy Butler comeback to boost their offense.

Thom: So, do you think the A’s are potentially closing their window to compete as an elite team?

Drew: I think that all depends on how the rest of their offseason pans out. I don’t think they would have signed Butler if they didn’t think they can compete in the next three years, and the team is still decent on paper. That said, if they trade Jeff Samardzija and other pieces, that might effectively close their window for at least 2015.

Thom: It’s worth noting that they’re still projected to put up a very competitive 36.1 fWAR in 2015, so it’s not as though they’ve suddenly become a bad team despite moving their best player. As for the Blue Jays, have they done enough by adding Donaldson and Martin?

Brad: I think that the Jays’ offense is unquestionably one the best in the league – Jose Reyes, Martin, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Donaldson will challenge even the best pitching staffs. However, I think that they might be one front-of-the rotation arm away.

Drew: I think they’ve done enough to put themselves in contention. Martin and Donaldson are both huge additions, and prospects like Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez could provide that extra arm Brad mentioned, though neither are aces. I do think they can make another move to really benefit them, such as bringing in a second baseman. One thing that intrigues me is Mark Buehrle and his $19 million salary. The Jays could deal him and use that money to make another key addition.

Brad: In an ideal-world scenario, perhaps Drew Hutchison could emerge into an ace in 2015.

Thom: Being that they were able to acquire Donaldson without giving up Hutchison, Sanchez or Norris, it wouldn’t surprise me if Alex Anthopoulos makes another deal using prospects. I think once Jon Lester decides, the market will become clearer as to which avenues the team will have to go about acquiring an upgrade. Clearly, though, this is a team that’s going for it while they still can.

Drew: Agreed. They absolutely have the pieces to go out and get someone if they want to.

Thom: So, would you rather have given up what the Blue Jays did for Donaldson and pay him through arb, or would you rather have straight-up signed Sandoval for what the Red Sox paid?

Brad: Donaldson for me, even with the years of control on the prospects. He’s roughly the same age, but has more power potential and is great defender. Probably more durable too.

Drew: Donaldson hands-down. He’s clearly a better player, and will be playing for well below market value under arbitration. Sandoval arguably made above what he really should have on the open market, so to me it really is not even close that Donaldson is more valuable at what his salaries will be through arb than Panda is at his AAV.

Thom: To switch gears back to the AL West, the Donaldson deal makes the Seattle Mariners the projected top team in the division by fWAR, and they just locked up Kyle Seager long-term on a nine-figure contract. Why do you think they chose to do that now, and was it the right move?

Brad: Seager’s numbers might not be off the charts, but he was worth 5.5 fWAR in 2014 — a mark Adrian Beltre never even reached during his time in Seattle. So, it was a good idea to lock him up. Plus, Safeco not the best hitter’s park, and I think it will be interesting to see what might happen to Seager’s offensive numbers with a bit more lineup protection.

Drew: To me, this was a chance to lock him up before he hits arguably his peak value. Had he posted another 5.0-plus fWAR season again in 2015, he would have been much more expensive to extend. For the Mariners, they’ve seen him play well enough to know he will provide value, but at the same time he is not so proven that he would cost an arm and a leg in an extension.

Thom: One interesting point that Brad brought up in his column is that Seager is not normally someone who you’d think of as a “stud” difference-maker, and in some ways, he’s almost a Donaldson-lite in that his value comes from being a balanced producer rather than being elite in any category.

Brad: I agree. Both players are well-rounded, hit for some pop, decent BA, play good defense — Donaldson just does all of those things a little bit better though.

Drew: Seager isn’t really elite in any facet of the game, but he is an above-average, all-around player. Plus, he’ s 27 and made huge strides in 2014, so who’s to say he can’t do a little more and become elite? That said, I don’t think the Mariners can bank on it by any means.

Thom: So, let’s say for the sake of argument that he ultimately doesn’t develop elite skills to be a 6-plus fWAR player at his peak — do you think he’ll produce even value over the duration of the extension?

Brad: I do. I think that he will continue to be at least a 3-4 fWAR player for the foreseeable future.

Drew: He needs to be worth in the ballpark of 2.4 fWAR per year to produce even value, which I think is absolutely attainable.

Thom: To wrap things up on a little bit of speculation, if the season started today, do the Red Sox, Blue Jays, A’s and Mariners make the playoffs by the end of the year? Right now, they’re projected as the third, fifth, ninth and second-best teams by fWAR in 2015, respectively.

Drew: Red Sox — no; Blue Jays — yes; A’s — no; Seattle — yes

Brad: Red Sox — no; Blue Jays — yes; A’s — no; Seattle — yes

Based on the overall verdict, while the Red Sox nabbed arguably the two biggest bats on the FA market, it seems that they may still have a fair bit of work to do this offseason to return to AL East prominence past the hard-charging Blue Jays and division champ Baltimore Orioles. Meanwhile, the recent moves in the AL West could see a shift in power as the Mariners are now poised to challenge the Los Angeles Angels for the division crown.

That said, after the flurry of moves they made to go for it all in 2014, I don’t think anyone can truly count out the A’s yet. With plenty of time left in the offseason, Beane could very well have a few tricks up his sleeves.

Follow Thom on Twitter @ThomTsang, or add him to your network on Google.

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