MLB Seattle Mariners

Nelson Cruz Will Have Last Laugh With Seattle Mariners Deal

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By @JordanWevers

USA Today Sports - Bob DeChiara

USA Today Sports – Bob DeChiara

It really does not matter what kind of production Nelson Cruz has for the Seattle Mariners over the next four seasons, or if he is even wearing their uniform by the time 2018 rolls around. Every red cent Cruz squeezes out of the organization will have a red flag that comes with it the slogan: ‘You’ve Been Had.’

As anticipated with the Baltimore Orioles‘ failure to promptly secure the free agent to a long-term deal after a career year with the club in 2014, another club intervened with an offer too enticing for the 34-year old slugger to refuse.

Cruz is reportedly headed to the Pacific Northwest on a four-year deal that will pay him $58 million. That number represents multiple failures on behalf of the Mariners to put the best product possible on the field in 2014 — with a cheaper price tag attached, to boot.

Last winter, Mariners ownership and management had a structured deal in place that would have paid Cruz roughly $7.5 million for the 2014 season, plus a club option for $9 million dollars in 2015. The club ultimately nixed it because of his PED suspension in 2013 while in the final year of his contract with the Texas Rangers. All of this was well documented by Mariners beat writer Bob Dutton of The News Tribune.

If there was a time for any team to take a flier on Cruz, it was last year. He had little leverage in contract negotiations. After leading MLB in home runs, Cruz and his agency had all the leverage in the world going into this offseason. In this instance, GM Jack Zduriencik and the M’s come across as the boyfriend who begs the girlfriend to forgive him and take him back after they were caught being unfaithful.

Cruz must be loving every minute of it, and he should be for an average of $14.5 million, instead of the M’s original $8.25 million and an uncertain future beyond 2015.

The Dominican native spent eight years of his career with the Rangers playing frequently in the ballparks of the AL West. He barely reached the 40 home run mark last season, the only time he has approached it in his career. It’s no secret that four of the five diamonds in the AL East are very hitter friendly. Robinson Cano, who hit 50 combined home runs in 2012 and 2013 with the New York Yankees, settled for only 14 last season, his first as a Mariner. By Sabermetrician Bill James‘ system, Safeco Field was the least hitter friendly park in all of MLB last season.

Cruz’s lifetime line at Safeco is .234-9-19 in 194 ABs. That equates to a home run in every 20.4 ABs there versus one in every 17.8 ABs over his career average. Truth be told, he will probably feel more at home in games played down in Arlington than he will in Seattle.

Another red flag that cannot be overlooked is Cruz’s PED history. If he was in fact using during a steady stretch of his time in Texas and 25-30 home runs became his ceiling playing in the AL West, what can fans expect from a clean Cruz now? Research has shown that the extended use of PEDs can predispose athletes to increased musculoskeletal injuries. Perhaps that is why Cruz could rarely stay healthy with the Rangers.

For only the second time in his career, Cruz avoided the disabled list and was rewarded with a healthy season — perhaps because he played a clean one in Baltimore. He had to. Nothing was guaranteed beyond that.

The bottom line is that Cruz is not worth $58 million. Albert Pujols is a first-ballot Hall of Famer who plays home games in a more friendly hitter park than Safeco. He produced a line of .272-28-105 in his age-34 season. Neither he nor Cruz are worth their value in dollars come 2015 if we gauge things off the fact Mike Trout is scheduled to make only $6 million next year.

Few players in the entire league are worth their contract by that standard. Therein lies the inherently flawed application of paying athletes for past production in professional sports.

It will be playoffs or bust for Cruz’s 2015 squad. Regardless, he will still get to cash his checks, and Mariners fans will still be paying $8 for a soggy ballpark dog. Winning a World Series would make everything much easier to swallow.

Jordan Wevers is a writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @JordanWevers, “Like” him on Facebook, or add him to your network on Google.

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