MLB Philadelphia Phillies

Ben Lively’s Arm is Just What Philadelphia Phillies Need

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By @papreps

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Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to prospects, there is a huge unknown element, but the Philadelphia Phillies weighed the risk and reward of giving up Marlon Byrd and came away with a future star in pitcher Ben Lively.

Look at it this way: Byrd was 38 and, although he hit .264 with 25 home runs, the risk of trading him to the Cincinnati Reds was not that high. As the Phillies have found with their other aging stars in the past few years, with age comes a drop in production. There was no guarantee that Byrd would match that 25/85/.264 line again and it’s even more likely that he will fall off those numbers rather dramatically.

With Lively, though, there is a significant upside. Lively’s ceiling is a No. 1 or No. 2 starter on a contending team and that’s a pretty nice looking roof. The 2013 fourth-round pick out of the University of Central Florida has the advantage most of the other pitchers selected high do not — high-level college experience. Those are the kinds of guys who rise quickly through the system and end up on major-league rosters fast.

That had to help him rise up the charts of highly-rated prospects in the Reds’ system, ranked No. 12 by Baseball America at the end of the 2014 season and that’s odd because the Reds rated him their No. 1 prospect, giving him their Minor League Player of the Year award. The numbers support the pick because he started in Class-A Bakersfield (Calif.) with a 2.28 ERA in 79 innings. After a promotion to Class-AA Pensacola (Fla.), he had a 3.88 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings — as good an indication of his stuff as any stat line. He was 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA between those two teams.

If Lively can duplicate those numbers in Triple-A this season with the Phillies, he should not have to wait long for a call-up to the big leagues. Since Lively figures to stay long-term and Byrd was a rental, the Phillies came out ahead in this deal.

Mike Gibson is a Phillies writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @papreps , “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.

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