Getty Images
In his rookie year with the Tampa Bay Rays, Jake Odorizzi pretty much filled expectations that he would be a solid, but unspectacular part of the rotation. On the year, Odorizzi had a 4.13 ERA and an 11-13 record. He was a good back-end starter for the Rays, but not much more.
All that said, there were some signs that Odorizzi was a better pitcher than he really was, and he will break out for the Rays in 2015 because of it.
Not really known as a strikeout pitcher prior to the year, Odorizzi developed a split-changeup during spring training that soon became a true out pitch. While the new pitch took some getting used to for him, it had developed into a consistent weapon by the end of the year. On the year, Odorizzi struck out 9.32 batters per nine innings, which ranked him ninth in baseball among qualified starters in front of the likes of Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner and Jon Lester.
Plus, Odorizzi has solid control of all of his pitches, as evidenced by his 3.2 BB/9 in 2014 and career minor league 2.9 BB/9. That only helps him get the most out of his stuff, which is part of the reason that he had good strikeout numbers on the year.
ERA estimators were slightly higher on Odorizzi than his true ERA. His FIP (3.75), xFIP (3.90) and SIERA (3.66) all agree that he was really a better pitcher than he showed. In 2015, he will likely get better on virtue of luck alone, and that will contribute to his breakout.
However, there is another huge indicator that Odorizzi is really a better pitcher than his overall numbers give him credit for. He struggled mightily out of the gate, throwing to a 5.31 ERA over 12 starts from the beginning of the season through June 5. That was understandable enough; after all, many rookies go through learning curves when they first get into the big leagues.
After that, Odorizzi was a much better pitcher, throwing to a 3.51 ERA. It is reasonable to say that Odorizzi finally found his groove and that this ERA is closer to the true type of pitcher that he is.
Coming into the big leagues, Alex Cobb had a similar profile to Odorizzi in that he was expected to be a back-end innings-eater. But Cobb took a step forward upon reaching the big leagues, and he has thrown to a 2.82 ERA in the last two years. Heading into 2015, Cobb is now the ace of the Rays’ staff.
Odorizzi may never become a an ace like Cobb, but his career could follow a similar story. Expected to be a back-end starter, Odorizzi showed flashes of being much more in 2014. Expect him to turn those flashes into consistent results in 2015.
Drew Jenkins is an MLB writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DrewJenkins77, “Like” him on Facebook, add him to your network on Google, or contact him at [email protected].
