Rant MLB Columnist Roundtable (2/2): AL Central Preview

By Thom Tsang @ThomTsang on February 2, 2015

You don’t have to be a baseball superfan to know that even though Detroit Tigers took the AL Central crown for the fourth straight season in 2014, the division is as wide open as it’s been in some time going into the 2015 MLB season. More than one team certainly took note of that, and this offseason has seen a number of headline-making moves made to dethrone the longtime kings of the division.

But will that be enough, even though the defending division champs just lost a former Cy Young winner? Rant MLB columnists Drew Jenkins (@DrewJenkins77) and Brad Faber (@Brad_Faber) have you covered and more.

Thom: With numerous big-name additions this offseason, many consider the Chicago White Sox to be one of the most improved teams in MLB going into the 2015 campaign. Yet, Fangraphs has them projected to finish fourth in a relatively close division with a 78-84 win season. Do you think they’ll outperform that projection?

Drew: I definitely think they can outperform that. Their rotation is solid at the top with Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana. The additions of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche make their lineup pretty good, and if a guy like Avisail Garcia steps up, then it is even better. I would not be surprised to see them compete for the division in 2015.

Brad: They will clearly outperform that projection. Adding LaRoche and Melky to a lineup that also features Garcia and Jose Abreu will make that group pretty scary. Samardzija was the no. 2 guy the needed to complement Sale, and adding David Robertson really helps their bullpen as well. This team is much better than the one we saw in 2014, and their record will reflect that.

Thom: I think the projection is perhaps more of a reflection on how much parity there is in this division, rather than how good the team is. That’s not to say that there aren’t major question marks on the White Sox roster, though. What do you think is this team’s biggest Achilles’ heel going into Spring Training?

Drew: Depth is the biggest factor for me. They are pretty thin in the outfield and rotation, and an injury or two to either of those positions could really hurt them.

Brad: I’ll go with the bullpen. Their relievers had a collective 4.38 ERA last season. Obviously, Robertson will help, but the rest of the guys behind him will need to do better. I also agree that depth in the rotation might be an issue after their top three.

Thom: Speaking of the rotation, it seems folks have been talking about whether Sale’s mechanics are going to catch up with him for years. After a pair of seasons with 192 and 214 IP, some health issues in 2014 and a noted change in his repertoire (11.03 percent drop in sliders, 9.79 percent bump in changeup per Brooks), what will 2015 look like for Sale, and is there a red flag there for the White Sox?

Drew: I think Sale is a better pitcher that he has ever been before. Increasing the usage of the changeup and dropping the usage of the slider will absolutely help him moving forward. In terms of health, there will always be questions thanks to his delivery, and it is absolutely a worry moving forward.

Brad: Sale might be a little different next year, but still very good. According to FG, everything in his repertoire has a positive pitch value, so he can’t really go wrong with anything he throws. Perhaps the drop in sliders usage will bode well for his longevity.

Thom: Is Carlos Rodon ready to make an MLB-level impact for the White Sox in 2015? There was some speculation that he’d come up for a cup of tea in September last year, so the team seems to want to move him up quickly.

Brad: I don’t think they will rush him. After all, he only has 24.1 innings in the minors thus far.

Drew: I definitely can see him impacting the big league club in 2015. The team does not have much depth, and when someone inevitably gets hurt, I think it will be tempting for the Sox to call him up. Whether it’s a good idea might be another story.

Thom: You both mentioned the strength of the team’s lineup this year, and while they did add a couple of impressive bats, I think we can agree that the White Sox offense still runs through Jose Abreu at this point. How legit was his 2014, and is he already an elite first baseman in only his second MLB season?

Brad: He’s absolutely legit. Abreu is only 28 years old, and while I wouldn’t be surprised to see him regress a little bit in year No.2, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him put together several consecutive 30-plus home run seasons either.

Drew: A .356 BABIP might indicate some luck, though great hitters often have high BABIPs just because they hit the ball so hard. Even if he regresses a bit, though, I still see Abreu as a true No. 4 hitter who any team would love to have. I’m not sure I’d call him elite until he has done it for a few seasons, but he could be there before too long.

Thom: Let’s move on to the Minnesota Twins, who also made some notable headlines to improve, even though some would probably say they were curious ones given the prospects of the franchise going into 2015. What do you make of the Twins’ offseason?

Drew: I see what they’ve done as a combination of trying to find a way to sell tickets, a way to bring in a veteran presence to a young team, and a potential stockpiling of trade assets for the short term.

Brad: The Twins’ offseason has certainly been perplexing, but I wouldn’t necessarily sleep on this team. If Phil Hughes‘ 2014 turns out to be for real and Ervin Santana has another 200-plus inning season, that would be a great 1-2 punch, even with all of the other questions marks behind them such as Ricky Nolasco. As far as the bats go, Kennys Vargas seems to have some promise, and I wouldn’t rule out a Joe Mauer comeback either. Torii Hunter still has a productive bat as well.

Thom: Let’s look at Mauer a bit. By his standards, his 1.9 fWAR 2014 was a down season, and he posted the some of the worst hitting numbers of his entire career. We know the power isn’t there, but can he compete for a batting title again, or is the decline in full swing at 31 years old?

Drew: I would not be surprised to see him rebound for a couple of seasons. Polished hitters like Mauer can succeed at older ages, and I think that his plate IQ will serve him well going forward. I doubt his power will ever come back to where it used to be, but it isn’t necessary for him to be a valuable enough player.

Brad: Going into last season, I definitely expected the move to first base to help Mauer rediscover his 2009 MVP form. Obviously that didn’t happen, but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit .330 again based on what he has done in the past. Injuries have been an issue here too, and he does need to stay healthy in 2015.

Thom: Aside from Mauer, if the Twins are to be competitive in the AL Central this year, who is their biggest X-factor?

Brad: I’ll go with Vargas or Kyle Gibson. Both showed promise in 2014 and I think that they both have a pretty high ceiling.

Drew: Without a doubt, Gibson taking a step forward would be huge for the rotation. The Twins’ 1-2 are both projected to drop off a bit for good reasons, so someone will need to emerge to fill the gap if they are to have a shot a competing.

Thom: Prediction time: Will either Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano, or both, be regulars for 2015 Twins at some point? It’s worth noting that the latter is one of Fangraphs’ top prospects by projected fWAR in 2015.

Drew: I would say 2016 is more realistic for them. Maybe Sano could be given a cup of coffee towards the end of the season, but it would be understandable if it takes him a while to get to full strength after missing all of 2014. Buxton has barely played above High-A and likewise missed a good portion of 2014, so I’d be surprised to see him in the big leagues at all next year.

Brad: Both are still obviously really young, but it also seems like they don’t have much else to prove in the minors. I could definitely see them getting time in 2015, but I don’t think they will be regulars until probably 2016.

Thom: The AL Central team that finally capitalized on a foundation of a young talent was the playoff darling Kansas City Royals. Instead of building on that success, however, it seems that they’ve definitely lost more than they’ve gained this offseason. Do they still have what it takes to surprise the division?

Drew: I think there is a lot of potential, but also plenty of question marks. Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios could actually make their lineup better than it was 2014, but either could just as well struggle and make it significantly worse. Losing James Shields definitely hurts the rotation, but adding Edinson Volquez helps. A strong year from Kris Medlen could go a long, long way too … but again, he’s a big question mark.

Brad: I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Royals take a major step back in 2015, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them compete again either. Their offense really lacks power, although a full season of Eric Hosmer and a Mike Moustakas breakout would certainly help with that. The still have the amazing trio of relievers, and I think that the rotation will be okay as well, even though it most likely will not have Shields.

Thom: It’s unlikely, but I’m going to ask anyway since he’s still out there: Are we completely closing the door on a Shields return to KC?

Brad: I would still say that his return is unlikely, but as we inch closer to Spring Training and he remains unsigned, I think it is possible if his price tag drops.

Drew: I would be really surprised if he re-signed there. Beyond just the money factor, the Royals already have six quality pitchers who are vying for five spots.

Thom: The biggest thing for me about Shield is that while he is a very solid pitcher, this team just doesn’t necessarily need an “ace” when they can effectively end the game in the seventh inning. There are other areas they can improve on, and even if some of the young arms aren’t able to go deep … well, they’re not going to need to most of the time. If the Royals could make one more move prior to Spring Training, what do you think it would be?

Drew: I can definitely see them adding some more depth in the infield, especially someone who can play short. Everth Cabrera might be an interesting fit.

Brad: I agree – infield depth is easily their biggest issue going into 2015. Christian Colon is basically all they have in that department.

Thom: After putting together a 4.9 fWAR season and taking the postseason by storm, has Lorenzo Cain arrived as a bona fide star at age 28? Or is he a product of BABIP/luck?

Brad: While I don’t think his .380 BABIP is sustainable, I think that we are going to see at least a 3.0-fWAR player here for a few more years, considering his defense and other elements of his game.

Drew: His .380 BABIP is definitely going to come back to earth, and his offensive numbers will fall as a result. That said, he’s a very good defender and his bat does not even need to be that great for him to be a perennial 3.0 WAR player. I’m not sure I’d go so far as to call him a star, but he is definitely a good contributor.

Thom: Speaking of stars, it seems that not even winning a Cy Young has helped Corey Kluber truly break through the Cleveland Indians curtain to become a household name in the sport just yet. That might not be the case for fans of the AL Central though, who have definitely gotten to know him pretty well. How legit was his breakout, and do you see him as a Cy Young contender this year?

Drew: I absolutely see him as legit. All ERA estimators like his work, and his peripherals were great. I would not be surprised to see him in the Cy Young mix this season.

Brad: I’m not sure how repeatable his 7.3 fWAR will be, but I think we are going to see a very good pitcher here for years to come, considering he’s only 28.

Thom: Behind him, the team has at least a couple of young guys who flashed potential at different points in 2014. Though neither Danny Salazar or Trevor Bauer had great seasons, the end results for both were definitely solid, with both posting 1.0+ fWAR years. Do you see a 2015 breakout for either?

Drew: I can definitely see one or both breaking out in 2015. Both have been dominant in the minors at times, and both have solid stuff.

Brad: With the heat that Salazar features, I see big things for him in the future, maybe even in 2015. While I think Bauer will eventually get there as well, Salazar is probably a little closer to being an impact guy.

Thom: Whether it’s injury, age or decline in performance, there are some players who could very well be the spark plug for this team this season if they can just return to form. Who has the most to prove for the 2015 Indians?

Brad: For me, it’s Nick Swisher. He may never be the .288/.359/.511 guy he was with the New York Yankees back in 2010, but he needs to be better than he was last year.

Drew: Jason Kipnis. In his first year after signing a big extension, he had a rough season. A rebound from him could be huge for the club’s offense.

Thom: Does this team have enough to win the division? Do you see them making a run for the World Series in the near future, or are they missing something crucial?

Brad: I could see them making a run. I think that their starting staff and bullpen are solid enough, and I really like their offense — especially with the addition of Brandon Moss and the breakout season Michael Brantley had in 2014.

Drew: The team certainly could make a division run if guys like Swisher and Kipnis can rebound, and if Salazar and Bauer can step up in the rotation. That’s a lot of ifs, though. I do think they have the type of controllable pitching that would help them make a deep playoff run in the future, but I am worried about the long-term outlook of the lineup.

Thom: While we’re on long-term outlooks, that gets us to the Detroit Tigers, whose window is definitely open in 2015 … but may not be for much longer than that. FG has them projected to narrowly finish first in 2015 ahead of the Indians, though the division is pretty tight overall. Do you think 2015 might be the Tigers’ last hurrah, or are they still here to stay beyond that?

Drew: I see 2015 as their best chance to field a team capable of making a deep run. That said, they have the money to fill holes in their roster, and you cannot completely count them out of contending in the future.

Brad: Age is certainly going to be an issue with the Tigers before too long, with Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera each set to enter their age-32 seasons. Plus, Victor Martinez is 36. As far as competing beyond 2015 goes, there are going to be many variables such as whether Verlander can return to form and whether they can extend David Price.

Thom: We’ve already seen decline hit one former once-in-a-generation first baseman in Albert Pujols, and there’s some concern that at 31 going on 32, it may happen to Miggy sooner rather than later. Considering his ankle injury, are you legitimately concerned about him if you’re the Tigers? Do you think this is the right year to really start moving him off the field and into a more regularly DH role, giving more time at first to V-Mart?

Drew: I’m not ready to say he is going into a decline phase of his career yet. The injuries definitely hurt him in 2014 and likely impacted his numbers. We need to see what he can do when he’s healthy before we write him off as declining. In terms of moving him to DH, it would be one way to help him stay healthy, but it won’t happen full-time with Martinez on the roster. Maybe the Tigers could have them split time at first and DH.

Brad: Considering the Tigers have V-Mart for the next four years, I think that a permanent DH role might be a bit further down the road. That said, I think that a more even platoon with Martinez and Miggy in the DH/first base spots might be a possibility this season, especially early on when Cabrera returns to action. It is too early to worry about a post-30 decline, considering his recent injuries.

Thom: By most accounts, the Tigers’ Achilles’ heel in 2014 was the bullpen, which never got into a groove despite the front office’s efforts to bolster it. There are several arms there who have closer experience/potential. Who will start 2015 as the Tigers’ closer, and who will finish in that role?

Brad: Joe Nathan is likely to be the Opening Day closer. If he can return to being the old Nathan, he’ll keep his job. If not, the Tigers also have Joakim Soria, who should be able to slide into that role with ease.

Drew: I also think the Tigers will give Nathan another chance, but if he struggles and Bruce Rondon can come back strong from Tommy John, then the job will go to Rondon.

Thom: It might seem obvious, but I’m going to ask it anyway: Who is the Tigers’ biggest difference-maker in 2015? Who can’t they do without?

Drew: I’ll go with the popular answer here. At his best, Miggy is the best hitter in baseball, and a rebound from him will go a long ways towards them having a daunting lineup.

Brad: While I would normally vote for Miggy as well, I think 2015 is a bit of a different year for the Tigers. With so many question marks in the rotation, they would be in bad shape right now without David Price.

Thom: I’ll cheat a bit here and give two different answers. My thinking is that the Tigers would have a strong offense even without Miggy, so the indispensable player is Price, without whom the rotation could potentially fall apart. As for the difference-maker, I’m going the unconventional route with Jose Iglesias. Defense matters, especially when you can play it like this kid; a healthy full season from the SS will be hugely beneficial to the pitching staff, which I think is the team’s biggest question mark.

Brad: Solid choice. The Tigers certainly felt his absence at shortstop last year.

Thom: Okay, let’s move on to the fun part of these previews, the fictional divisional awards. Your 2015 AL Central MVP is …

Drew: Alex Gordon. He’s the most underrated player in baseball and a huge contributor to the Royals on both sides of the ball.

Brad: Even if he has a late start to the season, Miggy is still the best hitter in the game, and there is simply no other impact bat like his. I’m going with the slugger.

Thom: I’m picking Jose Abreu here. He was already one of the best hitters in MLB in his debut season, and even with a drop in BABIP, he still lines the ball hard enough that he can put up a .900+ OPS season. It’ll be a tight race, but I think he’ll be in it all year. Your 2015 AL Central Cy Young is …

Drew: Chris Sale. A healthy Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He could be key to a White Sox playoff run this year.

Brad: David Price. The 2012 AL Cy Young winner set new career-highs in strikeouts, innings pitched and FIP in 2014, setting the stage for even better things in 2015.

Thom: Despite injury concerns, I’ve got Sale here as well. As long as he can stay healthy, I think he’s the class of the division. Your 2015 AL Central Comeback Player of the Year is …

Drew: Justin Verlander. He was roughed up in 2014, but as he learns to not rely on pure stuff, he could return to being an ace.

Brad: I would really like to go Verlander or Jose Iglesias, just for the sake of not picking too many Tigers, I’ll go with Nick Swisher. Prior to last season, he was always a lock to hit 20 homers and be a high OBP player, and there should be nowhere for him to go but up now.

Thom: I’ll cop your answer then and go with Iglesias. He’s probably not a .303/.349 hitter by any stretch of the imagination, and his bat might be a little slow out of the gate in 2015; however, if he can even be a replacement-level hitter, I think his defense is good enough to make him a 2.0+ fWAR guy in 2015. Your 2015 AL Central Breakout Player of the Year is …

Drew: Kyle Gibson. He wasn’t great in his 2014 debut, but he has shown promise in the past and could harness it in year two.

Brad: Kenny Vargas had a decent showing in 2014, slashing .274/.316/.456 with nine homers, and should have a very high ceiling going into this season.

Thom: Danny Duffy is my guy here. I know ERA estimators don’t think much of his 2.2 fWAR, 2.53 ERA 2014, but changes in his repertoire, and a career-low line drive rate says that he’s still learning to make adjustments. Going into his prime at 26, I think health is the biggest thing holding him back from a big year. On the flip side, your 2015 AL Central Bust of the Year is …

Drew: Kendrys Morales. Royals gave him a decent sized deal this offseason, but he struggled in 2014 and that could very easily continue in 2015.

Brad: Morales for me as well. Obviously the Royals are looking past his 2014 and hoping that he can be the guy who hit 23 homers for the Seattle Mariners in 2013, but that may not be how it goes.

Thom: Let’s make it a clean sweep here — I’m going with Morales as well. His skillset hasn’t totally left him, but I think he’ll be no more than a replacement-level player for the Royals when 2015 is said and done. Finally, how do you see the AL Central playing out in 2015?

Drew: Royals, White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Twins

Brad: Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Indians, Twins

The lack of consensus here highlights the overall takeaway that there is truly no standout class of the division in 2015, and at least four of the five teams could give it a good run this season. As for the Twins, fans can take solace in that the kids are in fact coming and there are solid pieces locked up for when they arrive, even if the team doesn’t don’t look poised to return to the mix this season … barring some serious alignment of the stars.

With the number of question marks surrounding all of the teams though, stranger things have happened — like the Royals making it all the way to the World Series, you know?

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