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Tampa Bay Rays’ Kevin Kiermaier A Player To Watch Despite Too-Good-To-Be-True 2014

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Kevin Kiermaier Tampa Bay Rays

Kim Klement- USA TODAY Sports

In 2014, not much went right for the Tampa Bay Rays. Expected to be one of the bigger threats to make a deep playoff run, the team went on to win just 77 games thanks to many injuries and underwhelming performances. That said, there were some diamonds in the rough in Tampa Bay. One of these diamonds was outfielder Kevin Kiermaier.

Ever since being drafted, the odds have been against Kiermaier. He was taken in just the 31st round in the 2010 draft, hardly a round known for producing big leaguers. To put into perspective the challenge that he faced from the get-go, only five outfielders out of 162 picked in the 31st round of the draft have ever played in the big leagues, and just two of them have a career bWAR of over 10.0.

Fast forward to prior to the 2013 season, and Kiermaier was still pretty much unknown. He had been good at times in the lower minors and showed decent defensive potential, but he was viewed as a potential fifth outfielder at most, or simply an organizational guy.

In 2013, however, Kiermaier began to put himself on the map. He started the year by hitting .307/.370/.434 with a 134 wRC+ in 97 games at Double-A, which earned him a promotion to Triple-A. He hit well there in 39 games, slashing .263/.338/.423 with a 112 wRC+.

Then, the totally unexpected happened, and the Rays added Kiermaier to the 40-man roster and called him up as a defensive replacement in their season tie-breaker game. Kiermaier appeared in that Game 163 with the Rays, and he was even added to the roster for the team’s Wild Card game.

Nonetheless, with a strong outfield crop heading into 2014 that included Desmond Jennings, Wil Myers, David DeJesus and Brandon Guyer, on top of utility guys Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez who were also capable of playing there, Kiermaier was expected to spend most of the year at Triple-A to get his bat some more seasoning.

However, injuries forced the Rays’ hand, and after a couple of brief stints with the big league team early in the season, he was called up in late May for good. He never looked back.

True to his reputation, Kiermaier provided great defense for the Rays. According to Fangraphs’ Def, he was worth 15.5 runs above league average on defense, which ranked him 12th in baseball among all positions and fourth among outfielders. That is even more impressive when you realize that Kiermaier played in only 108 games.

His 17.7 UZR also favors his defensive work, as does his 36.3 UZR/150, which ranked him the best defender in baseball at any position. Kiermaier even received league-wide recognition for his efforts, getting nominated for an AL Gold Glove Award, which is a rarity for players who played as few games as he did.

While Kiermaier’s defensive numbers were elite, where he really surpassed expectations was with his bat. On the year, he slashed .263/.315/.450 with a 119 wRC+ and .333 wOBA. On a team that included Evan Longoria, Zobrist and Myers, Kiermaier led in slugging. According to Fangraphs’ Off, Kiermaier was worth 7.7 runs above average on offense.

Add in around average baserunning, and Kiermaier was worth a total of 3.8 fWAR and bWAR on the year. That is even more impressive because he played just 108 games and had only 364 plate appearances.

Now, heading into 2015, Kiermaier appears to have the inside track on an everyday job in the Rays’ outfield, be it at at center or right. That said, what can the Rays really expect out of him after he surpassed expectations by so much in 2014?

In reality, Kiermaier’s bat will not be quite as good as it was, at least not immediately. One indication that his bat will come down to Earth is that he hit just .211/.259/.347 over the season’s final two months after hitting .304/.358/.527 prior.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

As these two charts show, the left-handed hitting Kiermaier had a general preference towards pitches that were on the middle to the outside part of the plate and lower in zone. How he hit that well on pitches off of the plate outside is beyond me, though Kiermaier’s swing mechanics do back up the fact that he should favor the outer part of the plate.

Chart Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Chart Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

This chart is showing where pitchers located their pitches against Kiermaier from the start of the year until July 31, when he hit .304/.358/.527. Despite Kiermaier’s obvious preference for the outside part of the plate, pitchers played right into his strength because they simply did not know better.

Chart Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Chart Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

This chart, on the other hand, shows pitchers’ strategy against Kiermaier from August 1 to the end of the season, when he hit.211/.259/.347. As pitchers got more information on Kiermaier, they started to throw inside to him more and more, and this trend will only continue if Kiermaier keeps struggling against the inside pitch.

The key for Kiermaier will be making the adjustment. That is certainly possible, but he has experienced the one time in his career where pitchers basically knew nothing about it and he will never get to experience that again. That alone will hurt his chances of reaching his 2014 numbers, at least immediately.

Kiermaier also has a flaw in that he struggles against lefties. On the year, he hit just .203/.213/.284 against southpaws vs. .280/.342/.498 against righties. He also has hit just .246/.345/.319 against left-handers in the minors since 2011.

Don’t get me wrong, though; Kiermaier still can be an average or slightly above-average contributor on offense. He is actually a career .278/.352/.398 hitter in the minors, so there is a track record of solid hitting there. Realistically, he will provide solid contact and on-base skills, and he likely will not be able to replicate the .187 ISO that he had in the big leagues, a career-high for him at any level.

That said, even if his bat is below average, Kiermaier’s defense will always be good enough to make him a solid everyday player. That stays true against lefties because even if he is not hitting at all against them, his defense is good enough to make up for it.

His 2014 gave fans a glimpse of what is to come defensively, and as his defensive metrics showed, Kiermaier should end up as one of the best defenders in baseball and a perennial Gold Glove winner.

What is scary is that he has room to improve. Kiermaier can get reckless at times, leading to errant throws and overrunning balls. His -1.3 ErrR, which indicates how error-prone a player is, shows he was actually below average in that aspect of defense.

As he matures and calms things down a bit, Kiermaier could be even better on defense than he was in 2014.

Kiermaier will likely never be the around 6.0 fWAR player that he would have been had he played a full season in 2014 with the same numbers that he put up. However, he certainly has the ability to be a 3.0 to 4.0 WAR player each season thanks to elite defense and a usable bat.

The Rays will need Kiermaier to play a key role as they look to rebound in 2015, and the good news is that he certainly can do that.

Drew Jenkins is an MLB writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DrewJenkins77, “Like” him on Facebook, add him to your network on Google, or contact him at [email protected].

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