Heading into the upcoming season, many were beginning to feel that the Toronto Blue Jays had a legitimate chance to finally get over the AL East hump. After all, they are a team that put together an 83-win campaign last year and subsequently made a series of exciting offseason moves.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, let’s just say they have not been MLB‘s most fortunate club thus far in Spring Training.

The first blow came when newly-acquired outfielder Michael Saunders suffered a knee injury while shagging fly balls. Then 23-year-old starting pitcher Marcus Stroman tore his ACL while reportedly participating in bunting practice, sidelining him for the entire 2015 season.

Stroman, who went 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA (2.84 FIP) and a 1.17 WHIP in a 3.3 fWAR campaign in his rookie season last year, was expected to be a formidable presence in the Blue Jays’ starting rotation once again. As a matter of fact, some felt that he may have been poised to cement himself as the ace of the staff, which is what makes his loss particularly devastating.

So, what will the rotation now look like without him? How do the Blue Jays replace the 3.3 wins above replacement that Stroman gave them last season? Well, let’s begin by taking a look at the pitchers that Toronto still has and examine any potential internal solutions.

At the front end of the rotation, the Blue Jays still have a pair of grizzled veterans in knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and crafty southpaw Mark Buehrle. Over the past two seasons, Dickey has been quite solid for the Blue Jays. He has not been the same pitcher that he was with the New York Mets back in 2012, when he went 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA (3.27 FIP) and a 1.05 WHIP in a 4.4 fWAR Cy Young-winning campaign, but the 40-year-old has been worth a very respectable 2.1 fWAR in each of the past two seasons.

Knuckleballers can be quite durable and have more longevity than most, and it is worth noting that Dickey has now crossed the 200 inning marker in four consecutive seasons. Steamer is projecting Dickey’s third season in Toronto to look a lot like the first two, penciling him in at a 12-11 record with a 4.15 ERA (4.37 FIP) and a 1.30 WHIP through 206 innings in a 1.9 fWAR campaign.

When it comes to Buehrle, the soon-to-be 36-year-old has been the definition of a workhorse, throwing a minimum of 201 innings every year since 2001. Also entering his third year in Toronto, it is unlikely that he will deliver the 6.0 fWAR campaign that he gave the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox a decade ago, but he is coming off of a very solid season in which he went 13-10 with a 3.39 ERA (3.66 FIP) and a 1.36 WHIP while posting a 3.5 fWAR.

Steamer is predicting some regression for him as well, projecting him at a 12-11 record with a 4.32 ERA (4.36 FIP) and a 1.33 WHIP through 199 innings in a 1.8 fWAR campaign.

Although Dickey and Buehrle’s projected numbers are not exactly eye-popping, it would certainly make a difference if they could each throw around 200 innings and give the Blue Jays 2.0-ish fWAR campaigns. While Toronto would still be lacking an ace, it is clearly a plus to have two above-replacement level arms who have the ability to chew up that many innings. Even though they are both certainly getting up there in age, it may still be possible for them to outperform those projections as well.

One of the biggest X-factors now is Drew Hutchison. The 24-year-old has already experienced some success at the big league level, but he still has plenty of untapped potential. Over four seasons in the minor leagues, Hutchison was an impressive 18-13 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 56 games (54 starts).

Last year, Hutchison went 11-13 with a 4.48 ERA (3.85 FIP) and a 1.26 WHIP in a 2.6 fWAR campaign for the Blue Jays. Considering the fact that it was his first full season and he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, a few ups-and-downs were likely expected.

Steamer is projecting him at a modest 11-10 record with a 4.09 ERA (4.00 FIP) and a 1.26 WHIP in a 2.1 fWAR campaign in 2015. In a perfect-world, it probably wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to suggest that he could make up the 3.0-plus wins above replacement that are likely at stake with the loss of Stroman, but it’s not a scenario that the Blue Jays can necessarily count on.

When it comes to the back end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, it is possible that newly-acquired swingman Marco Estrada could provide some much-needed help and perhaps Johan Santana could make an improbable return to greatness, but most eyes are now likely to be focused on Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris.

When it comes to Sanchez, the Stroman injury will only continue fueling the debate as to whether he should be a starter or a reliever. The 22-year-old went 18-23 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 93 games (77 starts) during his minor league career. He made it to the big leagues last year and worked exclusively out of the bullpen for the Blue Jays, posting a very impressive 1.09 ERA (2.80 FIP), an 0.70 WHIP and a 7.36 K/9 over 33 innings.

The problem with putting Sanchez in the rotation, however, is that the Blue Jays’ bullpen was already considered a potential area of concern, particularly after the departure of Casey Janssen. Sure, they have Brett Cecil, who has been absolutely dominant over the past two seasons, but he lacks experience in the closer’s role, and there are a few question marks after him.

Therefore, there is an argument to be made that Sanchez should not be taken out of a role in which he excelled last season, especially if he can help shore up one of the team’s weaknesses. Even though he flourished in the big leagues last season, it is also interesting that his numbers were not particularly good in Triple-A Buffalo as he pitched to the tune of a 4.19 ERA (4.87 FIP) and a 1.54 WHIP over eight games (six starts).

Not unlike someone such as Wade Davis of the Kansas City Royals, there is also the chance that his repertoire might be better suited for the bullpen. A hard thrower, Fangraphs’ PITCHf/x data clocked Sanchez’s top fastball at a speed of 99.4 mph last season, so it would be interesting to see if he might take a different approach while working out of the rotation.

Norris, on the other hand, will not be turning 22 years old until April. He is coming off of a breakout season in the minor leagues in which he went 12-2 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across three levels (Class-A Advanced Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo). He made it up to the big leagues for a small cup of coffee, posting a 5.40 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 6.2 innings of work.

Norris certainly has potential, but he is obviously still very young and inexperienced at the major league level.

So, what are the Blue Jays to do? Do they choose to rely on the veterans and the up-and-coming youngsters, or do they go out and make a move for a legitimate ace?

Well, unless the Blue Jays can pull off a surprise move and pry a star pitcher away from the talent-rich Washington Nationals, it appears that there may only be one other frontline starter that they could get at this point: Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies. Although Cliff Lee may have also been a possibility, the Phillies are going to have a hard time moving him after the recent news of his elbow injury.

The Blue Jays making a deal with the Phillies might be particularly interesting, given the fact that the two teams have a little bit of history. Of course, the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays back in December of 2009 in a deal that also sent Lee to the Seattle Mariners, and it is kind of ironic that the Blue Jays and Phillies are in entirely different situations now than they were when that trade occurred more than half a decade ago.

The now 31-year-old Hamels is owed $94 million through 2018, and there is also a $20 million team option or $24 million vesting option for 2019. Obviously, it would be a big financial commitment for the the Blue Jays, and there is also the question of what he would cost in terms of talent.

While trading for Hamels may seem like a slight overreaction, he might be Toronto’s best bet to replace Stroman at this point in time. Since the beginning of 2007, Hamels has posted a minimum of 3.5 fWAR in each of the past eight seasons. With Steamer now predicting that Hutchison will lead the staff with 2.1 fWAR, Hamels could give the Blue Jays the three extra wins that they may need.

Interestingly enough, the AL East rival Boston Red Sox have also been connected to Hamels, so it will be interesting to see if there will be a new sense of urgency for one team to acquire him before the other one can.

It is perhaps worth noting that the Baltimore Orioles won the AL East last season without having a single starting pitcher break the 3.0 fWAR barrier. Their collective mark of 9.8 fWAR ranked 14th in the AL, placing only one spot ahead of the hapless Texas Rangers. To put it simply, they were able to get the job done with a very deep, yet rather unspectacular staff.

Over in the National League, the Pittsburgh Pirates clinched their second consecutive playoff berth with a rotation that posted an MLB-worst 7.4 fWAR. Although it should be noted that Madison Bumgarner more than made up for any deficiencies that the San Francisco Giants‘ staff may have had, the fact remains that they won their third World Series in five years with a rotation that only posted a 8.2 fWAR, which ranked 28th in baseball.

With such a strong offense, maybe the Blue Jays will be the next team to follow suit and get by with the pitchers that they already have, especially when considering the upside that Hutchison, Sanchez and Norris bring.

If they do decide that they are content with their current options in the rotation, and ultimately give Sanchez or Norris a spot on the staff, the other move that Toronto could make is to add another reliever to the mix. After all, the Blue Jays have also been mentioned in Jonathan Papelbon trade rumors this winter and Rafael Soriano is surprisingly still a free agent.

That being said, the Blue Jays are a team that is trying to get to the postseason for the first time since 1993, and the loss of Stroman certainly throws a wrinkle into those plans. This is a team that now owns the longest active playoff drought, and 2015 was looking like their best chance to snap it in years.

Over the coming weeks, the Blue Jays will need to make a decision or two on how to best preserve their chances of contending. Perhaps going out and getting Hamels may very well turn out to be the best move.

*All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference, ESPN.com and Fangraphs 

Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google. 

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