Close Article Return to stream X
MLB

Brad Miller May Be Seattle Mariners’ Starting Shortstop For Now, But An Uncertain Future Awaits

+Read full article
BradMiller

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Just one year ago, Brad Miller was entrenched in a Spring Training battle with Nick Franklin for the Seattle Mariners‘ starting shortstop job. Although Miller eventually came out on top and Franklin is now a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, things are still far from settled at that position for the probable AL West favorites heading into 2015.

Through 123 games last season, Miller slashed only .221/.288/.365 with a .290 wOBA and a 86 wRC+ in a 1.5 fWAR campaign. He did show a little bit of pop by swatting 10 home runs and posting a decent .144 ISO, but his overall performance at the plate was quite disappointing to say the very least.

Considering the fact that Miller managed a rather encouraging .265/.318/.418 triple-slash with a .323 wOBA and a 105 wRC+ in a 1.8 fWAR campaign through only 76 games back in 2013, it’s fair to say that Mariners fans were hoping for much, much more. Miller was also a .334/.409/.516 hitter over three minor league seasons, which might further put his offensive struggles into perspective.

So, what exactly happened? Well, it is particularly interesting to note that while he never once posted a K rate of over 17.1 percent down on the farm, Miller whiffed an above league-average 23.1 percent of the time with the M’s last year. While his swinging strike percentage was still not particularly bad at 9.7 percent, it was up a tick from last year’s mark of 8.6 percent.

Therefore, it may be reasonable for one to suspect that he may have been expanding the strike zone, offering at bad pitches possibly as a result of pressing.

According to Fangraphs’ Plate Discipline Data, however, Miller’s O-swing actually fell from 34 percent in 2013 down to 32.8 percent last season. He also swung at fewer pitches in the zone as his Z-swing fell from 70.4 percent down to 66 percent, so it may have actually been the good pitches that he was struggling with. Miller’s O-contact and Z-contact rates fell, too, going from 71.8 and 89.2 percent to 66.8 and 86.5 percent respectively. He did, however, still manage to post a decent walk rate of 8.3 percent.

Taking a closer look, as seen in the heat map below, Miller was performing well on balls that were both out over the plate and down-and-in when things were going well back in 2013. He didn’t seem to mind the pitch up in the zone either.

BMiller2013HeatMap

Chart Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

As seen in the following heat map, Miller did not have nearly as much success on the outside pitch in 2014, but he was still a good low-ball hitter. He will likely want to continue looking for the down-and-in pitch in 2015.

BMiller2014HeatMap

Chart Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Miller was also hurt by the fact that he was not particularly lucky on balls in play, posting a BABIP of only .268, which was down from .294 the previous year. Miller’s ground ball and line drive percentages both dropped while his fly ball rate increased, going from 32.4 percent to 38.5 percent. Focusing on lining the ball should lead to more success on balls in play going forward.

As far as defense goes, Miller did play a serviceable shortstop according to some metrics, posting a 1.4 UZR and 2.0 UZR/150 with a 6.2 RngR. On the other hand, he was tagged for -3 DRS and also committed 18 errors at that position. While Miller’s defense may have still been passable, it was hardly enough for him to permanently cement himself as the M’s shortstop of the future.

ChrisTaylor

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle responded to Miller’s struggles, and on July 24 of last year, the Mariners called up another young shortstop in Chris Taylor, who quickly began opening eyes.

Although he may have been aided by an unsustainable .398 BABIP, Taylor slashed a very impressive .287/.347/.346 with a .313 wOBA and a 103 wRC+ after his call-up. Not unlike Miller, Taylor made quick work of the minor leagues, slashing .320/.407/.463 over three seasons, so there was plenty of reason to believe that he could continue being a solid offensive performer even if he might have a little less power than Miller.

Taylor also shined on the other side of the ball, posting a 4.4 UZR and a 14.2 UZR/150. He had a 6.4 RngR with four DRS as well. Perhaps most impressively, Taylor matched Miller’s fWAR total, posting a mark of 1.5 in only 47 games.

Taylor, of course, was expected to challenge Miller for the starting job this spring prior to suffering a wrist fracture, which will now keep him on the sidelines for the next 4-6 weeks. He had been hitting .421/.450/.842 in Spring Training. With Taylor out of commission, Miller now has a slight window of opportunity to go out and show manager Lloyd McClendon that he can be a well above-average major league shortstop.

For what it is worth, Fangraphs Steamer has Miller slashing .249/.309/.393 with a .310 wOBA and a 101 wRC+ in a 2.2 fWAR campaign. The ZiPS projection is nearly identical, giving him a .249/.308/.382 triple-slash with a .306 wOBA and a 98 wRC+,  while also giving him a 2.2 fWAR.

Considering the fact that only seven shortstops in the AL and 15 in all of MLB were worth 2.0 or more fWAR last season, Miller would certainly be giving the M’s solid value at that position if those projections turn out to be accurate, placing himself right in the middle of the pack.

It is also worth noting that Steamer and ZiPS both have him at a 4.1 Def rating respectively. While Taylor may very well be the better defender, it seems to be agreed that Miller should be able to play a decent shortstop, just as he did last season.

If Miller can take his offensive game up a notch, it would not be too shocking to see him break the 3.0 fWAR barrier, which is something that only 12 shortstops in the game did last season. Granted, it might be a stretch to suggest that he could be the .330 hitter he was in the minor leagues, but there is still enough evidence to suggest that he should be able to post positive Off values going forward.

Miller has enjoyed a nice spring thus far, hitting .321/.412/.679 with a pair of homers through his first 34 plate appearances. Of course, preseason numbers should be taken with a grain of salt and he actually hit .410/.478/.836 with four homers last spring, but it is still better than seeing him struggle.

While Miller and Taylor combined to give the Mariners 3.0 fWAR season, it would indeed be interesting to see what another perennial 3.0-plus fWAR player might look like in the Mariners’ future infield. After all, Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano already meet that description and then some, posting marks of 5.4 and 5.1 respectively last season. The ultimate wild card may be Logan Morrison over at first base — if he can finally manage to stay healthy.

In theory, Taylor could be that extra 3.0-plus fWAR player in his own right, especially if he can continue swinging a hot bat. Plus, it is not as if he is lost for the season, and he will be returning at some point. Steamer may only have Taylor giving the M’s a 0.9 fWAR performance through 53 games, but ZiPS has him at 2.3 fWAR through 116 contests.

Given his defensive reputation, if he can continue hitting the way he did last year and throughout his minor league career, Taylor should be able to easily outperform the former and even the latter projections. Plus, his glove alone may eventually help him become a 3.0-ish fWAR player.

Over in the AL East, Baltimore Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy did not have his best offensive season, hitting only nine home runs while posting a below league-average 90 wRC+, but his stellar glove work helped him post a 3.3 fWAR. It is not unreasonable to suggest that Taylor could eventually derive the same type of value with his glove.

At the very least, the Mariners should eventually find themselves in possession of two 2.0-plus fWAR shortstops. It will be interesting to see what happens if Miller is performing well at the time Taylor is ready to come off of the DL, and one can’t help but wonder if the M’s may consider trading one of them at some point down the road after all.

If that is the case, it does seem that Miller would be more likely to go, even though the M’s showed an unwillingness to deal him over the offseason. After all, having stellar defense at shortstop is important, and Seattle already has its major offensive pieces in Seager, Cano and the newly-signed Nelson Cruz, so getting offense from that position may become secondary. If Miller shows that he can handle himself at shortstop, it should also give him considerable trade value.

But, if the M’s do ultimately decide to hold onto both players, would there be enough room for each of them to have starting jobs?

Well, some have wondered if Miller could eventually make the transition to the outfield, but the M’s now have a new right fielder in Seth Smith, who is signed through 2016 with a team option for 2017. He also happens to be coming off of a 2.6 fWAR campaign with the San Diego Padres, even though his career numbers suggest that he may be best used in a platoon. Still, Smith and Miller are both left-handed hitters.

In the other corner spot, Seattle has Dustin Ackley, who is another left-handed hitter. While his big league career has been somewhat of a disappointment thus far, Ackley still remains under team control through 2017.

Cruz might also see some time out in left, but he figures to be the primary DH. Also in the mix for playing time is newcomer Rickie Weeks, who was signed on a one-year deal. Though primary an infielder who should see time on the bench, Weeks figures to see some time in the outfield as well.

There may be one final possibility: Miller in center field. The M’s currently have Austin Jackson out there, but he will be a free agent after the 2015 season. He is also coming off of one of his worst seasons, posting a combined fWAR of only 0.9 during his time with the Mariners and Detroit Tigers last season. While he is still a guy who gave the Tigers a 5.4 fWAR campaign as recently as 2012, using Miller in center may be a thought worth entertaining if Jackson continues to struggle.

At any rate, however, unless the M’s ultimately decide to finally give up on Ackley or part ways with Morrison, it simply becomes difficult to see how Miller and Taylor both fit into the long-term picture. It is important to remember that Ketel Marte is on the way as well. While the Mariners may eventually need to make a hard decision, Miller currently has a prime opportunity to go out and show that he has the potential to be counted as one of the better shortstops in the league.

This is one positional battle that should go right into the heart of the season, and it should be fun to watch.

*All statistical information courtesy of Baseball-Reference, Brooks Baseball, ESPN.com, Fangraphs and MLB.com. 

Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google. 

Your Favorites