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In December of 2013, the Detroit Tigers sent starting pitcher Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Robbie Ray, left-handed reliever Ian Krol and utility man Steve Lombardozzi. For many Tigers fans, the trade was a head-scratcher from the get-go.
According to fWAR, Fister was one of the top 10 pitchers in the American League in 2013, and most believed that the package of talent the Tigers received in return was quite underwhelming. Ray, however, was fairly intriguing.
Just 22 years old at the time, Ray was coming off of a breakout season, going a combined 11-5 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with 160 strikeouts in 142 innings pitched across his time in High-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. It appeared that the southpaw had a chance to have a very bright future in the Motor City.
Called up to make his MLB debut on May 6 of last season, Ray initially looked very promising, picking up a victory in his first big league outing after tossing 5.1 innings and surrendering only one earned run against the Houston Astros. Five days later, he had another great start, receiving a no-decision after twirling six shutout innings against the Minnesota Twins. Unfortunately, things started to go downhill shortly after that.
By the end of the year, Ray had gone 1-4 with a 8.16 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP over nine games (six starts) with the Tigers. His numbers in Triple-A Toledo were not exactly otherworldly either, going 7-6 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 100 innings of work.
This past December, only a few days after the one-year anniversary of Fister trade, the Tigers decided to deal Ray and prospect Domingo Leyba to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-way trade that sent Didi Gregorius to the New York Yankees and brought 26-year-old right-hander Shane Greene to Motown.
While Greene was only 29-43 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over his minor league career, he had a decent rookie campaign as a member of the Yankees, going 5-4 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He also twirled a pair of gems against Detroit.
Through his first three starts this year, Greene was nothing short of spectacular, going 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. For a split second, it appeared as though the Tigers had acquired a pitcher who was just coming into his own and the Fister trade had finally paid off. Over Greene’s next 10 starts, however, he went 1-6 with an 8.60 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP, earning a demotion to the minors.
Ray, on the other hand, appears to have figured a few things out. Over nine starts in Triple-A Reno, he had an eye-opening 12.31 K/9. In four starts with the Diamondbacks, he has gone 2-1 with a 1.09 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. It is interesting to note that the average velocity of his fastball has jumped from last year, rising from 92.44 to 94.51 mph, per Brooks Baseball. To put it simply, he is showing a rather live arm from the left side.
Of course, it is only a four-game sample size, a certain amount of regression can obviously be expected and Greene may still very well come back strong, but it could also turn out that the Tigers should have given Ray a little bit more time to show what he can do. Right now, it is hard to deny that he would look quite nice in the No. 5 spot of Detroit’s rotation.
Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google.
