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Detroit Tigers’ Mike Pelfrey Could Surprise In 2016

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Earlier this month, the Detroit Tigers addressed a need at the back end of their starting rotation by signing Mike Pelfrey to a two-year deal. At the time the move was announced, many fans were not particularly excited.

Although Pelfrey was once an effective innings eater who was usually good for 30-plus starts and 180-plus innings per year during his days with the New York Mets, one could argue that he is coming off of a rather uninspiring three-year showing with the Minnesota Twins. Over that time span, he posted an 11-27 record and a 4.94 ERA.

It is worth noting, however, that Pelfrey battled injuries over that stretch as well. He underwent Tommy John surgery during his final year with the Mets in 2012, and injuries limited him to only five starts in 2014.

That said, during this past season, although Pelfrey was hardly great, going 6-11 with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, he did provide a few reasons for optimism.A few numbers that stuck out were his 2.0 fWAR, his 51 percent ground ball rate and his  AL-best 0.60 HR/9.

According to Fangraphs PITCHf/x data, the average velocity of Pelfrey’s sinker registered at 93.3 mph, which was a three-year high, but he isn’t exactly a strikeout pitcher. As a matter of fact, he ranked 34th among 35 qualified starting pitchers in the AL in both swinging strike rate (5.6 percent) and K/9 (4.70). He trailed only Mark Buehrle in both departments.

The fact that Pelfrey is good at keeping the ball on the ground should play well in front of a Tigers’ infield that includes a pair of defensive wizards in Jose Iglesias and Ian Kinsler. It is also worthwhile to note that Comerica Park is a spacious, pitcher-friendly yard, which could help him sustain his low home run rate.

Lastly, although Pelfrey threw only 164.2 innings this past season, it was the first time he recorded 30 starts since the 2011 campaign. Perhaps that was a sign that he is ready to put his recent injury history behind him and get back to being somewhat of a workhorse.

Pelfrey will only be 32 years old on Opening Day, and while one obviously shouldn’t expect him to be an AL Cy Young contender, he could still surprise and do a bit better than one might expect. At the very least, if he is healthy, he should be the type of pitcher who takes the ball every fifth day and gives his team a chance to win most of the time.

Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google 

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