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Raise your hands if you predicted the Miami Marlins signing Wei-Yin Chen to a five-year, $80 million deal. If you have your hands up, you’re a dirty liar.
Okay, I guess it maybe shouldn’t be too surprising, given that Jeffrey Loria changes his mind between rebuilding and “going for it” seemingly every other week. It makes me sort of wonder when he’ll just decide to hate Chen and banish him to Single-A or something.
For the sake of argument though, let’s assume that doesn’t happen and the Marlins are actually going for it. Well, they’re still one pitcher short, with a ton of options left on the market. Sure, they could sign a Yovani Gallardo for Scott Kazmir money, or they could take a look at the trade market. I’d take the latter at this point, and the guy they should be looking at is James Shields.
The San Diego Padres are going to probably be a below-.500 team next year, and they seem motivated to clear Shields from the payroll. He’ll make $63 million over the next three years with a $2 million buyout in the fourth. That’s not a terrible price for a starter these days, especially one who would settle into the No. 3 slot really nicely.
I wouldn’t say he’s an ace, and that’s where I think the Padres went wrong with their analysis. If he’s your best, I’d say the rotation is weak. With Miami, he wouldn’t be the ace and could even slip to the No. 4 slot, which would be even better for the Marlins.
A rotation of Jose Fernandez, Chen and Shields would be pretty formidable in a top-heavy division, and maybe then they’ll compete for a playoff spot in 2016. When you think about it, what’s the point of adding Chen without adding another piece in an area of need? They’re spending $80 million to win a handful more games this year — maybe. That doesn’t get the Marlins to the playoffs.
So, if I’m the dysfunctional Marlins, I’d simply offer up J.T. Riddle and Isaiah White. They’re two of the better prospects in the system, but are wholly expendable at this point as they’re not top-10 in the organization.
Riddle, a shortstop who likely can play second (did so in college) and third, is 24 and not getting any younger. He seems to be blocked, so the team might as well get some value for him. The Padres would be adding a guy with the ability make consistent contact. They’re not getting a guy who can hit baseballs 400 feet, but that’s okay. He’ll be able to play steady defense on top of that, and he’ll be ready for the big league level later in 2016. It’s a solid fit for an organization that lacks athleticism at the shortstop position.
White is an outfielder who is only 19. He is incredibly raw, but does flash the potential of being a very good player at the big league level if he makes better contact and continues to improve defensively. His ability to run can’t really be taught, and that can be a viable weapon for any team in the next 3-4 years. His contact rate leaves a lot to be desired, but like most 19-year-olds, he’s got to adjust.
It remains to be seen if he will, but it’d be well worth the risk for the Padres to take a look while ridding $63 million from the payroll since, let’s face it, they aren’t going to win in 2016.
A Shields swap like that would be a win for both teams for a number of reasons. It’ll be interesting if the Marlins decide to do something of that magnitude, or if they’re just trying to look competitive with the Chen signing, a trick that we’ve seen from Loria before.
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