Homer Bailey Is Cincinnati Reds' Key To Success In 2016

Not since Homer Bailey was a rookie has he meant so much for the Cincinnati Reds. He is the presumed top starter on the Reds’ roster, although he isn’t expected to play until after May 1. Whether he joins the rotation on May 1 or May 21, his role on the Reds is the key to the team’s success.

Bailey has three things going for him. Regardless of what happens, he will be the veteran leader of a young starting rotation. Even if Bailey has more injury problems, the young pitchers, especially young flame thrower Michael Lorenzen, will look to Bailey to lead the way. If he is healthy, there are additional ways he can prove to be invaluable.

When Bailey comes back in May, the Reds’ season could have one of two distinct projections. One could be that of an exciting first month of battling from a young cadre of starters. The other could be that of abject failure as the Reds could be the worst team in baseball in April. With 18 of their first 24 games against teams that went to the playoffs last year, the Reds have arguably the toughest opening month of the season of any team in MLB. If they can somehow get off to fast start, they can contend in the NL Central as 15 of those games are against NL Central rivals, excluding a weak Milwaukee Brewers team.

That is where Bailey comes in for the Reds. If the Reds are off to a fast start, he can step in and replace whichever of the young starters are having the worst season. Replacing John Lamb with Bailey is the type of move that could give the Reds a real shot in the arm to compete throughout the season.

The more likely scenario is that the Reds will be buried and out of any real chance at the playoffs by the time Bailey returns. If this is the case, it is important for Bailey to prove that he is healthy. If he comes back to a last place team, the Reds will need him to show off for the contending teams so that they can move him before the trade deadline. He’ll have 8-10 starts to show the rest of the league that he is ready for a pennant race. Then he will provide the Reds’ front office with the success of having gotten a good return for the oft-injured starter.

As a veteran leader, Bailey must demonstrate professionalism to a young staff. With four starters in the projected rotation who haven’t completed a full season in the majors, Bailey will provide leadership where there is none. If he can also be flipped for more young talent, the Reds will have a successful 2016.