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Heading into the 2015-16 MLB offseason, many were excited to see where this year’s impressive crop of free agent starters would ultimately end up. While the front-line hurlers such as David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann came off the board long ago and many of the mid-tier guys have signed as well, there is still a pretty good pitcher out there — Yovani Gallardo.
The soon-to-be 30-year-old may no longer be an ace and he surely has his flaws, but he is still a very solid major league pitcher. Quite frankly, it is a bit puzzling that Gallardo remains unsigned given what he can still bring to the table.
The right-hander, who spent last season with the Texas Rangers after being acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers, is coming off of a season in which he went 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has now posted an ERA below 4.00 in six of the past seven seasons.
Of course, his WHIP was quite high, and it is also worth noting that his ERA indicators painted a less optimistic picture of his success with his FIP, xFIP and SIERA checking in at 4.00, 4.31 and 4.59 respectively.
That said, his 124 ERA+ was actually the best full-season mark of his career. The only time he has ever dipped below the league average mark of 100 in that department was with the Brewers back in 2013, when he had an ERA+ of 92 during an off year.
Obviously, it’s hard to ignore the fact the Gallardo saw his K/9 shrink all the way down to just 5.91, which ranked 69th out of 77 qualified MLB starters. Back in his heyday with the Brewers, he was essentially a strikeout-per-inning guy. That said, he was pretty efficient at generating ground balls last year, ranking ninth among qualified American League starters with a 49.3 percent ground ball rate.
Another potential issue that could be scaring Gallardo’s suitors away is the fact that he struggled to work deep into games last year. As a matter of fact, only 12 of his 33 outings qualified as quality starts. Nevertheless, 2015 marked the seventh consecutive year in which Gallardo made at least 30 starts and threw 180 or more innings.
His overall value looked quite impressive as well. Gallardo checked in with a 4.1 bWAR, which was a new career-high for him, easily besting his previous high water mark of 2.9. He only posted a 2.5 fWAR, but it marked the seventh consecutive season in which he was at least a two-win pitcher, with his personal-best being the 4.6 fWAR he posted in 2010.
Going into the offseason, Gallardo was ranked by MLBTradeRumors.com as the 20th-best free agent of the winter. Checking in just ahead of him at No. 19 was Ian Kennedy. Both pitchers were projected to receive four-year, $52 million deals, putting their AAVs at $13 million, which seemed about right.
Of course, the now 31-year-old Kennedy recently signed a five-year, $70 million deal with the Kansas City Royals. The contract comes out to $14 million in AAV and reportedly includes an opt-out after the second season.
Ian Kennedy’s 5-year deal with #royals includes opt out after the 2nd year.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) January 16, 2016
Like Gallardo, Kennedy turned down a qualifying offer, so a draft pick came attached to the signing as well.
While Kennedy has been great in the past, particularly in 2011 when he was a 4.8 fWAR pitcher with the Arizona Diamondbacks, he is coming off of a rather poor season for the San Diego Padres. Kennedy was pretty solid through 33 starts and 201 innings for the Padres back in 2014, but he went only 9-15 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this past season. He also had an unsightly 4.51 FIP, but his xFIP and SIERA looked much better at 3.70 and 3.61 respectively.
Kennedy’s ERA+ checked in at only 85, missing the 100 marker for the third straight year. As a matter of fact, Kennedy’s career ERA+ is just 97, whereas Gallardo has a mark of 111.
Furthermore, Kennedy was worth only -0.4 bWAR and 0.8 fWAR, marking the second time in the last three seasons he was right around replacement level. He also struggled to keep the ball in the park, surrendering a whopping 31 homers and posting a mammoth 17.2 percent HR/FB. While he has indeed been a terrific workhorse who was more than capable of getting up and beyond 200 innings in the past, the 168.1 innings he threw this last year were a full season career-low.
Admittedly, his 9.3 K/9 looked quite sharp and it remains quite possible that he will rediscover his 2014 form; however, there are still several reasons to be skeptical of this deal.
Another comparable pitcher who cashed in earlier this offseason was Scott Kazmir. After finding himself pitching in independent ball in 2012, the resurgent Kazmir has been on a productive three-year run with the Cleveland Indians, Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros. He was able to parlay that into a three-year, $48 million deal ($16 million AAV) with the Los Angeles Dodgers that reportedly has an opt out after the first season.
kazmir gets 48M for 3 years. opt out after 1st year.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 30, 2015
Over the past two seasons, the now 32-year-old Kazmir has been somewhat of a workhorse too, making at least 30 starts and throwing at least 180 innings. However, Gallardo has been doing that for seven seasons. Granted, Kazmir’s numbers were basically better across in board last season in categories such as ERA (3.10), ERA+ (130), FIP (3.98) and WHIP (1.21), but his deal is another great example of why Gallardo should have, and should still be able to get a deal that is for around $13-14 million in AAV.
Lastly, a little bit higher up the second tier, it’s worth taking a look at the five-year, $80 million deal the St. Louis Cardinals gave Mike Leake, and the five-year $90 million deal the San Francisco Giants gave to Jeff Samardzija.
At just 28 years of age, Leake is the youngest member of this group. He is another guy who has been good for 30 starts and 190 innings in each of the past three years. Going by both fWAR and bWAR, Leake has generally been about a two-ish maybe three-win pitcher, and his career ERA+ is barely average at 101. Still, that was good enough to net him a deal worth $16 million in AAV.
When it comes to Samardzija, after putting together an excellent campaign for the Chicago Cubs and Athletics back in 2014, Samardzija took a pretty substantial step back for the Chicago White Sox last year, posting a 4.96 ERA and surrendering a tied-for-AL worst 29 homers. Still, he was worth 2.7 fWAR, marking the fourth time, and the fourth consecutive year for that matter, he had met or exceeded that mark. It was also the third straight year he crossed the magical 200-inning marker.
Having just turned 31, Samardzija is more than a full year older than Gallardo as well. Sure, Samardzija’s arm doesn’t have as much mileage on it because of his days in the bullpen, he isn’t too far removed from a very great year and his stuff may be more electric than Gallardo’s, but the Giants are still taking a pretty big gamble. Samardzija’s ERA+ plus for his career? Below average at 96.
When looking at some of the deals other pitchers have received, it is a bit of a head-scratcher as to why Gallardo has not yet received the multi-year deal in the $50 million range that he was projected to get.
It remains to be seen what he will actually receive, but teams such as the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles, who have powerhouse lineups but could use a little bit more pitching, could still be good fits. Gallardo may have shown a few red flags last year, but he is still someone who will take the mound every fifth day and give his club a chance to win.
* Alls statistical information courtesy of Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs
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