Chicago White Sox Take Buy-Low Opportunity With Acquisition Of James Shields

After a bad outing last Tuesday, when he allowed 10 earned runs over 2.2 innings, San Diego Padres owner Ron Fowler called out James Shields by name. Trade rumors have surrounded Shields, so Saturday’s deal sending him to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher Erik Johnson and minor league infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. was not a huge surprise.

Shields signed a four-year, $75 million deal with the Padres before the 2015 season, but as with most of general manager A.J. Preller‘s aggressive moves that offseason, things did not work out. Shields made at least 31 starts and topped 200 innings for the ninth straight season last year, but he also allowed a MLB-high 33 home runs with a career-worst walk rate (3.6 BB/9) and a decline in fastball velocity (91.1 MPH).

Shields has maintained 2015’s propensity to walk batters so far this year (3.6 BB/9), and his fastball velocity has continued to decline (90.2 MPH). His strikeout rate has tumbled too, from career-high 9.6 K/9 to 7.6 K/9 thus far in 2016. That is a red flag as he moves from a pitcher-friendly home park into a hitter-friendly home park, which will only get more favorable for hitters as the weather gets warmer.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported the Padres will send more than $30 million to the White Sox to offset what Shields is owed ($44 million minimum from 2017-19; $16 million team option with a $2 million buyout for 2019). Shields can opt out of his contract after this season, but with the decline has he shown over the last season-plus there’s no way he would get the $21 million per season he’s owed in 2017 and 2018 on the open market.

Shields will likely become Chicago’s No. 3 starter, behind Chris Sale and Jose Quintana and ahead of Carlos Rodon. His next start for the Padres would have been on Sunday, but he is not expected to report to the White Sox until Tuesday with his debut date for the team unclear right now.

The White Sox are likely in the market for offense between now and the trade deadline. But with Sale, Quintana and Rodon as left-handers, and the bloom falling of Mat Latos lately (6.54 ERA over his last six starts), a right-handed starter was a possible need that general manager Rick Hahn proactively moved to address. Shields fits that bill, even though he may struggle to keep his ERA below 4.50 as not much more than an innings eater. Frankly, the White Sox aren’t on the hook for a lot of money to find out if Shields can revive his career pitching for a playoff contender again.