5 Stellar UFC on Fox 8 Predictions
5 Stellar Predictions for UFC on Fox 8
UFC on Fox 8 takes place on July 27 and will be headlined by a flyweight championship bout between current UFC champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson and contender John Moraga. This will be Johnson’s second title defense since winning the title last September. While No. 5-ranked Moraga has only fought in the UFC two times, he is on a seven-fight winning streak with eight total finishes out of his 13 victories and could give Mighty Mouse an interesting challenge.
A pivotal welterweight tilt stands as the co-main event with the dynamic No. 4-ranked Rory MacDonald taking on the explosive knock-out artist and No. 5-ranked Jake Ellenberger in a contest that is sure to have title implications. While Ellenberger is certainly willing to take on all comers, the young MacDonald has reservations facing his friend and teammate Georges St-Pierre for the title, discussed here.
The main card will kick off with returning female fighter Liz Carmouche taking on debuting Brazilian Jessica Andrade, followed by a bout between two Strikeforce cross-overs, Robbie Lawler and late-replacement Bobby Voelker. Carmouche is coming off a competitive loss against women’s champion Ronda Rousey in the UFC’s first ever female fight at UFC 157. The night also saw Lawler impressively finish Josh Koscheck by TKO in the first round.
In what could be the most explosive preliminary fight on FX, the Young Assassin Melvin Guillard takes on The Ultimate Fighter winner, Mac Danzig, in a bout both fighters badly need to win. The two are in tough spots and a loss for either fighter could spell the end of their UFC career.
It is easy to look at the betting lines for these fights and plop out a few obvious picks, but I refuse to do that. I will ignore the odds and come up with the best prediction I can based on what we know. The following slides highlight my official predictions for these five fights at UFC on Fox 8.
No. 5: Melvin Guillard vs. Mac Danzig
Guillard seems to do best when his back is up against the wall, and if it was ever against the wall, it certainly is now. After snapping a five-fight winning streak, the Young Assassin has lost four of his last five. Danzig has alternated wins and losses in his past six fights in the UFC and could also be staring at the chopping block with a loss on Saturday. Both fighters may just come out guns blazing trying their best to finish the fight and keep their UFC careers on track. If Guillard can come out aggressive but smart, he should be able to overwhelm Danzig early and get back on track. If they are unwilling to lie it all out on the line, a calm, collected Danzig may pull out a decision.
Official prediction: Guillard by KO
No. 4: Liz Carmouche vs. Jessica Andrade
Carmouche gave Rousey arguably her toughest fight to date, catching the champion with a brutal standing neck crank -- a position that lesser fighters may have tapped to. She also showed great toughness and a never-die attitude. While Andrade is a relatively unknown fighter, what we do know is that she is a finisher. She has gone to a decision only a single time, while all nine victories were finishes by choke or TKO. Carmouche showed that she is slick on the ground and should be able to stay out of trouble against all but the very best grapplers. The tough and tested Carmouche should get past the debuting Brazillian.
Official prediction: Carmouche by decision
No. 3: Robbie Lawler vs. Bobby Voelker
Lawler has had two opponents pull out of his fight and eventually got paired with late replacement Voelker. While Lawler impressively put away Koscheck in the first round of their fight, Voelker most recently debuted with a back-and-forth fight against Patrick Cote which was judged in Cote’s favor. This could be a great fight and may end up mostly taking place on the feet. Both men have dangerous striking, but Lawler’s experience with higher-level competition and heavy hands should give him the edge.
Official prediction: Lawler by TKO
No. 2: Rory MacDonald vs. Jake Ellenberger
Out of all the fights at UFC on Fox 8, perhaps the hardest one to predict is the co-main event. Ellenberger has ridiculous knock-out power which can change the momentum of any fight in an instant. His only real weakness in the past has been that he can slow down in later rounds. Perhaps the best approach for Macdonald is to fight smart and utilize his slight reach advantage while weathering an early storm from Ellenberger. If he manages to drag The Juggernaut into deep waters with a fast-paced fight, he could take a tough decision, but I don’t see MacDonald finishing Ellenberger unless he manages to get top position on the ground. If MacDonald doesn’t fight smart, expect The Juggernaut to take control of the fight early with a mix of explosive strikes and takedown attempts.
Official prediction: Ellenberger by decision
No. 1: Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga
If Mighty Mouse does what he does best, he should make it an all-around clinic by staying dynamic on the feet and mixing in takedowns. While Moraga has looked like a worthy challenger, he may have been thrown in with the wolves here a bit early. Moraga is getting a title shot after only two fights in the UFC. Not only does Moraga lack wins over top competition, this will also be Moraga’s first five-round fight. Mighty Mouse has shown that he knows how to win championships and can stay strong in championship rounds. Mighty Mouse should out-pace and out-work the green Moraga to remain the UFC’s flyweight champion.
Official prediction: Johnson by decision