We are finally starting to see players that will separate themselves from the pack. I had 10 players graded out as top 5 talents. After this week 3 of those players got downgraded. Now only 7 players are graded out as top 5 talents.
Stock Up
Nick Foles Quarterback Arizona Senior Redshirt Now a 3rd Round Pick Previously a 5th Round Pick Arizona quarterback Nick Foles has completed 71 percent of his passes. Foles has rebounded after the bye week following the loss to Oregon State where Foles left that game injured. Playing well after an injury really impressed me. I am moving Foles up to a 3rd round pick.
Juron Criner Wide Receiver Arizona Senior Now a 3rd Round Pick Previously a 5th Round Pick Juron Criner looked very impressive against UCLA hauling in 2 receiving touchdowns. Criner now looks like a solid 3rd round pick at this point.
Vinny Curry 3-4 Left Outside Linebacker Marshall Now a 2nd Round Pick Previously a 3rd Round Pick Vinny Curry is 2nd in sacks and is having a monster year. I was hesitant about jumping on the Curry bandwagon since he lost Mario Harvey plus I saw some bad game tape of Curry. Even if Curry flops like I believe he will in the NFL its very unrealistic to say he will not get selected in the first two rounds at this point.
Riley Reiff Left Tackle Iowa Junior Redshirt Now a Top 10 Pick Previously a 2nd Round Pick Riley Reiff had a dominating performance at left tackle for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Reiff has solidified himself as the 3rd left tackle to get selected in the first round.
Marvin McNutt Wide Receiver Iowa Senior Redshirt Now a 2nd Round Pick Previously a 5th Round Pick Marvin McNutt is 6 foot 4 215 pounds and he had a monster game in Iowa’s win over Indiana. McNutt has the ability to be a #2 receiver in the NFL. I had McNutt as one of my sleepers heading into the year. After today’s performance one wonders if McNutt is a 2nd round pick.
Zach Brown Right Outside Linebacker North Carolina Senior Now a 1st Round Pick Previously a 2nd Round Pick Zach Brown was the consensus top right outside linebacker heading into the preseason. Brown proved why he is the top linebacker prospect with a big game against undefeated Clemson despite Clemson’s runaway performance in the 2nd half.
Chris Polk Running Back Washington Junior Redshirt Now a 1st Round Pick Previously a 2nd Round Pick Polk is projected to run a 4.3 40 time weighing 6 foot 222 pounds. Polk has 5 carries for 116 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns so far against a Stanford run defense that is 2nd in the nation behind Alabama. For weeks I speculated that Polk is the top NFL back after Richardson. Polk’s performance against Stanford not only confirms this it convinces me that Polk could be the 2nd back taken in the first round.
Kirk Cousins Quarterback Michigan State Senior Redshirt Now a 2nd Round Pick Previously a 3rd Round Pick Cousins played an incredible game for Michigan State. He tossed a hail mary to finish the game. Kirk Cousins looks like he will be the 2nd 2nd round quarterback. Cousins has high character and he delivered in the clutch. Someone will take a 2nd round flyer on Cousins the way teams took a 2nd round flyer on Andy Dalton.
Cousins had a monster game. Cousins went 22 for 31 with 290 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Russell Wilson Quarterback Wisconsin Senior Redshirt Now a 4th Round Pick Previously a 5th Round Pick Russell Wilson is playing like a 4th round pick. I know he has the size of a 5th rounder, but his completion percentage was very good.
Montee Ball Running Back Wisconsin Junior Now a 2nd Round Pick Previously a 3rd Round Pick Ball had a good game. His offensive line makes him look this good. I will move Ball up to a 2nd rounder because A. Some people think he is first round material and B. Ball did a fantastic job moving hte chains for the Badgers with 115 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown.
Stock Down
Landry Jones Quarterback Oklahoma Junior Redshirt Now a 1st Round PIck Previously a Top 10 Pick I have raved about Jones being the most overrated quarterback in this draft for far too long. The ranting on Jones continues. This is a game Oklahoma should have had. Jones went 17/30 through 3 quarters with 2 touchdowns and 1 pick.
Jones played his best in the 4th quarter against Florida State he threw 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter despite Oklahoma trailing 31 to 17 to Texas Tech after 3 quarters. Texas Tech knocked off #3 Oklahoma 41 to 38.
Todd McShay mixed up his draft rankings putting Landry Jones at 3rd overall and Matt Barkley 22nd. The reality is Barkley should be 3rd and Jones should be 22nd. The reason Jones is ranked so high is because he has an elite skill set of physical tools. Jones mental attributes are downright awful. These potential weaknesses that Jones has have not been mentioned by the mainstream media yet because their are some sports personalities who are high on Jones.
Jones may have rallied the Sooners back, but he struggled under pressure throwing some very inaccurate passes. I want the quarterback with the intangibles and the experience operating a pro style offense. I don’t want the guy who just has the elite physical skill set.
You can quote me on this,
“If Landry Jones is the 3rd best overall player in the 2012 NFL Draft then he is the Ryan Leaf of the 2012 NFL Draft because Jones may have the arm, but he lacks the intangibles. Ironically enough, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is the second coming of the can’t miss prospect who competed with Ryan Leaf for the top pick. I am talking about how Luck is the best prospect to turn pro since Peyton Manning. Is it karma that Luck is getting compared to Manning while I compare Jones to Leaf? I think not.
I criticized Jones during his interviews because he appeared cocky during the summer. Heading into the season I believed he was the most overrated NFL quarterback prospect because he played in the shotgun no huddle spread system at Oklahoma. I watched 5 hours of Landry Jones game tape of 3 different games from last season prior to the Sooners week 3 game against Florida State.
Jones threw 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions against Florida State. The touchdown for Oklahoma came against Florida State in the 4th quarter when the game was tied.
He made some very inconsistent throws against Texas Tech going 17/30, 210 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception through 3 quarters. Jones went 12/24 in the 4th quarter with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.
While Jones plays his best in the 4th quarter the accuracy clearly isn’t there yet. Jones could have a steep learning curve and that will play a huge role into whether Jones succeeds or fails at the next level.
Jones relies on his deep vertical passing game. Whenever I see Jones make a 5 step drop he fires deep. These are the little things that NFL scouts talk about.
Sure, Jones has an elite physical skill set. He has a cannon arm, he is very tough, he has the ideal size for a quarterback at 6 foot 4 235 pounds.
For every quarterback with an elite physical skill set that Cam Newton had coming out of college their are 2 to 5 other quarterbacks with that same elite physical skill set who fail becoming major busts int the NFL.
Ryan Leaf had an elite physical skill set coming out of college. Leaf is arguably the biggest NFL bust of all time. Byron Leftwich had a cannon arm, but his mechanics were bad and he took too long to make throws as a starter. JaMarcus Russell’s physical attributes were off the charts coming out of LSU. Look where Russell’s career has gone?
I have seen everything I needed to see from Landry Jones. Jones is a late first round pick from a mental standpoint when you breakdown the accuracy, intangibles, mental discipline. Tonights game against Texas Tech pretty much sealed my impression on him.”
Some team will be seduced by Jones physical tools probably taking him much earlier than he should go. Honestly I would not draft Jones in the first 2 rounds. I think Jones is a 3rd stringer at best because he has not convinced me he has the mental attributes to succeed yet. Sure, Jones has the physical tools that you cannot coach, but he lacks the mental attributes.
The critic in me wants to send my sympathy to the team that drafts Jones. The fan in me wants Jones to get drafted by the Miami Dolphins so the New England Patriots have less to worry about for a good part of this decade.
Bruce Irvin 3-4 Right Outside Linebacker West Virginia Senior Now a 3rd Round Pick Previously a 1st Round Pick Bruce Irvin struggled to rush the passer against Syracuse. Last week in my mock draft I stated about how Irvin was underrated and how Vinny Curry was overrated. I then went on to rant about how Curry not Irvin should slide to day 3 of the NFL draft like Sam Acho did last year.
Someone called me out on the comments page. Even though I really like the game tape of Bruce Irvin from last year on youtube he is performing like a borderline day 2 pick for West Virginia right now.
It pains me to admit this, but the random comment user who called me an idiot for ranking Irvin ahead of Curry may have a valid point. Time to move on to the next player though. I am not beating myself up about misevaluating one prospect.
Julian Miller Left End West Virginia Senior Redshirt Now a 6th Round Pick Previously a 3rd Round Pick Julian Miller had a major drop off in this contest plus he got injured at one point during the game.
Mohammed Sanu Wide Receiver Rutgers Junior Now a 2nd Round Pick Previously a 1st Round Pick Sanu looks like a solid 2nd round pick. Sanu had a good game, but did not perform well enough to defeat a Louisville team on the road. Plus Sanu injured a cornerback. Sanu is talented he is not talented enough for 1st round consideration yet.
What separates a 1st round receiver from a 2nd round receiver is that a first round receiver leads his team to a win by making big plays against opponents that you are supposed to defeat.
Justin Blackmon Wide Receiver Oklahoma State Junior Redshirt Now a 1st Round Pick Previously a Top 5 Pick Blackmon left the game against Missouri with an injury. Blackmon had 8 receptions for 54 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
As crazy as it sounds, I have Blackmon as my 3rd best receiver behind Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery and Floyd have the size to create mismatches in coverage. Blackmon may have speed, hands, and route running, but he lacks the size of a flanker. Blackmon is a slot receiver with #2 receiver ability at best in my mind. The injury could raise some durability questions about Blackmon due to his lack of size plus Jeffery will dominate at the 2012 NFL Combine if he plans on declaring like everyone expects him to.
Michael Floyd Wide Receiver Notre Dame Senior Now a 1st Round Pick Previously a Top 5 Pick Michael Floyd has caught less passes than Justin Blackmon tonight. Floyd still has the size though so he should be a first round pick.
Andre Ellington Running Back Clemson Junior Now a 3rd Round Pick Previously a 2nd Round Pick Ellington would be wise to return to school. He looks like a 3rd rounder if he comes out to declare in 2012.
Alameda Ta’amu Nose Tackle Washington Senior Now a 3rd Round Pick Previously a 2nd Round Pick This is probably way too harsh on my end since Ta’amu is a top 50 talent in the eyes of many. Ta’amu struggled against Stanford. He could put himself back in 2nd round range if he wins out after tonight while getting late first round consideration with a dominant senior bowl. Stanford’s run blocking has dominated Ta’amu so far.
Trent Richardson Running Back Alabama Junior Now a Top 10 Pick Previously a Top 5 Pick Richardson is still a special back. He failed to rush for over 100 yards. , Richardson had 17 carries, 77 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Richardson was stuffed at times during this contest, but he also showed plays of explosiveness.
Mark Barron Strong Safety Alabama Senior Now a 2nd Round Pick Previously a 1st Round Pick Mark Barron dropped a sure pick against Tennessee in the first quarter and he muffed 2 punt returns. I am not buying into Mark Barron as a first round pick. Barron is still the top strong safety and the #2 safety after Mark Barron.