With three races left until we can crown a new Sprint Cup champion, a lot has been made about Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson being a two-man race as they are tied at the top of the standings. I don’t think so.
When you look at the scope of the chase standings, you have guys like Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick, who are 27 and 28 points back respectively. There’s also Kyle Busch, who is 36 points back in the standings. The next closer driver after Busch is Clint Bowyer, who is 55 points back.
So realistically, we are only talking about five drivers with Bowyer out of the conversation. With that being said, Busch is one driver who can make or break his championship chances this weekend at Texas. I don’t think being 36 points back after Texas with two races to go is something he can realistically come back from and win the championship. It is definitely possible, but I wouldn’t count on it the way Kenseth and Johnson are running.
I think Gordon can really shake things up in these last three races. He has the momentum, and he feels like he has nothing to lose but everything to gain. He is the real dark horse here. He has the championship pedigree, but I don’t think he has enough to come back with one more slip-up. That said, I expect him to be alive when we get to Homestead.
And then you look at Harvick. Emotionally, I don’t know if he has anything left given his issues with Richard Childress Racing. Yes, Harvick is only 28 points back in the chase standings, but does anyone think that he is working in a good environment? It isn’t over for Harvick, but it sure looks like it.