And Now the Chase is Down to One? Jimmie Johnson?

By Brian Berg Jr.
Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

Jimmie Johnson leads Matt Kenseth by 28 points in the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup finale at Homestead Miami Speedway. He leads Kevin Harvick by 34 points. The most a driver can get if he leads all laps and wins the race is 48 points. The math works out that if Johnson finishes the race 23rd or better he will win the Championship. 24th if he leads a lap or 25th if he leads the most laps.

Even though Matt Kenseth is the third best driver at Homestead with a driver rating of 106. If Kenseth leads all laps and wins the race the odds are Johnson who has the sixth best rating will finish in the top ten. If that happens Kenseth will only make up fifteen of the 28 points. Johnson will still win the Championship.

Is the Fat Lady singing for Kenseth and Harvick? Well she isn’t singing yet but she is on the way to Homestead and warming up. So what might happen to keep her from her appointed rounds?

When thinking about it, the picture of Kurt Busch losing his tire on the track always comes to my mind. Sometimes I wonder if it comes to other drivers minds? The fact is unless some major carnage befalls the No. 48 Lowe’s team of Jimmie Johnson this will be his sixth championship. Whether it be a blown engine, cut tire leading to a wreck or being caught up in someone else’s wreck that is what it will take.

Jimmie Johnson and the Lowe’s No. 48 Chevrolet team are the best at fixing a car and getting the most points possible due to adversity. They surely know that they need to beat 20 teams. The only way they can do that is to fix the car and stay perhaps only two to three laps down.

So the only hope for Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick is that they lead the most laps win the race and Johnson falls more than three laps down. All tall order.

Remember Kurt Busch and his tire coming off. Well his team calmly put a new tire on and he finished the race in fifth place winning the Championship by 8 points over Jimmie Johnson who finished the race second. Unless it is a race ending failure don’t expect anything less from Johnson and his team.

Brian Berg Jr. is a NASCAR writer for

Follow him on Twitter @brian_jr1 during the race and throughout the week for more NASCAR news and commentary, or on Facebook, Pinterest, and Google.

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