NASCAR

Prediction: Denny Hamlin Will Win Sprint Cup Title

By Ryan Pritt on November 16, 2014

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The remaining four drivers in NASCAR‘s Chase for the Sprint Cup have been analyzed and broken down over and over again all week long. It may be more of a relief than anything else for Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Ryan Newman that the hour is nearly here.

But at the risk of getting lost within the sea of predictions concerning the outcome of today’s race at Homestead, here’s one more prognostication — Hamlin may not win the race, but he will win the war and take home his first NASCAR Sprint Cup title. Call it a gut feeling, sure, but there’s plenty of evidence pointing toward Hamlin even though he enters the race as an underdog to Harvick.

When I look at the four of them on paper, one thing jumps off the page — actually, two things: both wins Hamlin has in his career at Homestead. As in, two more than Harvick, Newman and Logano combined.

There’s no arguing that Hamlin hasn’t quite had the speed week in and week out that Harvick and even Logano have had. Those two have combined for nine wins this year while Hamlin has won just one race. The numbers are just as skewed in terms of top fives as well.

But just like winning the race would win the title for any of these four today, having a problem could lose it as well. While Hamlin can’t match wins and top fives with Logano or Harvick, he hasn’t had as many bad days either. Hamlin has recorded just three finishes outside the top 30 this season, compared to five for Logano and seven for Harvick.

Then there is Hamlin’s pit crew, which is recognized as one of the best, if not the best, in the sport. Homestead is a track in which fresh tires are a must. Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen a lot of cautions. If one comes out with minimal laps remaining, Hamlin’s crew is the favorite to get their driver off of pit lane first. All year we’ve seen how important track position is, and if Hamlin gets in front of the other three in crunch time, one would have to figure the back bumper of the No. 11 car will get pretty wide.

After a title slipped through his hands in 2010, Hamlin has said all the right things, and he seems like a different driver this time around. Look for him to do all the right things today as well.

Ryan Pritt is a NASCAR writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on twitter @RPritt, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.