Kevin Durant’s Injury Opens Door for Anthony Davis to Win MVP

By Court Zierk @courtzierk on October 13, 2014

In 2010, the New Orleans Pelicans (Hornets at the time) were entering a period of uncertainty, the remnants of which are still being cleaned up today.

They had just hired a rookie head coach in Monty Williams, who at the time was the youngest coach in the league. Chris Paul was on the verge of becoming a free agent, and the likelihood that he would return to New Orleans was diminishing by the day.  David West and Peja Stojakovic were both in what turned out to be their final year in the bayou. The Emeka Okafor experiment had become an obvious failure. It may not have seemed like it at the time, but things were about to get messy.

The 2010-2011 season saw New Orleans make it to the playoffs, only to lose in the first round to the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, marking their fourth first round exit in their last five playoff appearances since their inception in 2002. The fallout that would then ensue would force the then-Hornets into a downward spiral for the next several seasons.

In 2011-2012, they would win a total of 21 games, which was actually fairly remarkable given the state of their roster. Let’s just say that Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack were their best players. That should speak for itself. Eric Gordon was traded to New Orleans in 2010, but only played in 9 games over the course of that season due to injury.

Then in 2012, New Orleans would win the NBA Draft Lottery and were handed the opportunity to make a franchise-altering selection in consensus No. 1 pick Anthony Davis.

Davis was, and is, a rare talent, possessing a unique combination of size, athleticism, skill and heart. This wasn’t your Andrea Bargnani or Andrew Bogut No. 1 pick. This was a slam dunk, once-in-a-lifetime type of draft pick that could alter a franchise’s course almost overnight.

Davis would go on to have a solid rookie season, finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting behind the Portland Trail Blazers‘ Damian Lillard. It wasn’t the spectacular, LeBron James-type of rookie season New Orleans had hoped for, but there was definitely reason to be optimistic about his future.

At the end of the 2012 season, it was clear that a new era had been ushered in, and the city of New Orleans embraced it. The Hornets would become the Pelicans, a nickname that was, and still is, mocked by many people outside of New Orleans, but to people in that resilient city, the name makes sense. In much the same way that the Saints represent that city’s culture, the Pelicans represent the resolve of their state.

In their first season as the Pelicans, Davis would truly have a breakout year, averaging 20.8 ppg, 2.8 bpg and 10.1 rpg on his way to his first All-Star selection. Over the summer, Davis became an integral member of Team USA, as they went on to win gold in the FIBA World Cup. All signs point to 2014-2015 bringing him to the cusp of superstardom.

Prior to Kevin Durant’s fractured foot, the Pelicans were widely perceived as a team on the rise, perhaps not good enough to qualify for the playoffs, but certainly viewed as a competitive presence in the Western Conference. Now that Durant will be out a minimum of six weeks, but more likely up to eight or nine, the door has been opened and the Pelicans can now see a glimmer of hope for a shot at the playoffs.

To quantify the impact Durant’s injury will have on the Pelicans, let’s take a look at last season’s playoff seedings. The overall No. 1 seed was the San Antonio Spurs with 62 wins. The eighth-seed Dallas Mavericks snuck in with 49 victories. That means there was a 13-game difference between the first- and last-seeded teams. This season, with the number of teams that significantly improved themselves, both in the Eastern and Western Conferences, I see that gap narrowing a bit to nine or 10 games.

Assuming Durant misses eight weeks worth of time, that amounts to roughly 18 regular season games. Let’s also assume that it takes some time for Durant to work himself back into basketball form. I don’t think it is realistic to think he will step back in and immediately be his MVP self. I will put that re-integration period at 10 games before he and the Thunder are clicking on all cylinders. That is 28 games, or roughly 35% of the season, the Thunder will be playing either without Durant at all, or with a suboptimal Durant working himself back into the offense.

I believe the Thunder have enough in Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and Reggie Jackson to put up a decent fight in most games, but let’s also be realistic — you don’t lose the reigning MVP for that amount of time and not suffer as a result. Otherwise, I’d have to question whether or not he should have really been the MVP.

I honestly don’t think it is too far fetched to assume that over that 28 game stretch, the Thunder lose at least seven more games than they would have without him in the lineup. In a conference where 10 games can be the difference between the overall No. 1 seed and watching the playoffs from your man cave, those seven games will end up being huge in the macro view of the season.

So what does that really mean? To me, it gives a team like the Pelicans, who previously had little hope to even battle for a playoff spot, a fleeting chance to fight their way in. It also gives Davis a realistic shot at contending for the MVP award. If they wind up in playoff contention at the end of the season, it will clearly have been a result of mind-boggling play from “The Brow”.

Judging by his performance over the summer in the FIBA World Cup, Davis appears poised to not only to take a step forward, but to get a running start, and make an unparalleled leap forward. His 20ppg, 10rpg, and 2bpg could easily approach 30ppg, 12rpg and 2bpg, numbers that would make it impossible to not hand him the MVP trophy.

With Durant out of the picture for MVP consideration, and since LeBron will inevitably take some time to gel with his teammates before he returns to MVP form, I think the path has been cleared for Davis to be a realistic contender for that award.

And for a franchise that is desperate to reinvent itself, and bring quality basketball back to the Crescent City, this could be exactly the spark they needed. You never like to see a player get injured, especially one as important to the NBA brand as Durant, but if there ever was a team that could capitalize on his absence, it is the Pelicans. And if there ever was a player who appears to be destined to be the next true NBA superstar, it is Anthony Davis.

Watch out for the Pelicans this year, and get ready for a decade’s worth of brilliant basketball from Davis.

Court Zierk is a Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @CourtZierk, “Like” him on Facebook or add him on Google.