NBA Phoenix Suns

Predicting the Phoenix Suns’ 2014-15 Win Total

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By @mrmarykateolsen

Goran Dragic Jeff Hornacek Phoenix Suns Win Total

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Last season, the Phoenix Suns were the talk of the NBA. Despite having a first-time head coach in Jeff Hornacek and a roster that, at least on paper, was one of the most talent-thin collections in the league, Phoenix was able to compile 48 wins and came within one game of reaching the playoffs. It was a remarkable achievement, but one that could be difficult to mirror in 2014-15.

In the gauntlet that is the Western Conference, complacency kills. If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse. Have the Suns gotten better with their offseason moves? You could argue that the addition of Isaiah Thomas helps push the needle in that direction. Should Eric Bledsoe fall prey to injury once again, he could step right in and give you similar production offensively. Conversely, Bledsoe could actually stay on the floor this year. 2015 is an odd-numbered year, so history dictates that he will, right? That alone could be a boon for the team.

There are other reasons to believe the Suns can be better as well. Alex Len was never really able to get it going last season and a lot of that was out of his control. Maybe he can get healthy and show the world why Phoenix was so keen on him in the draft. Maybe Zoran Dragic can develop into the kind of scrapper and lockdown defender that every team would want. Perhaps Hornacek can build upon his first-year experience and grow as a coach. Maybe Goran Dragic can force his way into the All-Star game.

Alas, it’s hard to bank on a slew of maybes coming to fruition. For me, the more likely scenario is that the Suns take a bit of a step back this season. The loss of Channing Frye and the effect it will have on the team’s offense cannot be overstated. Frye is in an elite position as a stretch big, and the space he created for his teammates will be sorely missed. Anthony Tolliver won’t come anywhere near having that kind of impact. Additionally, I’m not sure how the Thomas-Dragic-Bledsoe combination will come together, and should Thomas have to fill in for Bledsoe, the team will be giving up a lot on the defensive end.

Bovada set the line for Suns victories this season at 44.5; other lines were less friendly, typically landing at around 42.5. The Suns are a good team — better than anyone could have predicted — but in the Western Conference, they can’t be a playoff team as currently constituted. I’m taking the under on 44.5 and the over on the lower lines. My prediction for the Phoenix Suns’ 2014-15 record: 43-39.

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