As it currently stands, Nerlens Noel is fifth in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, at 41%. Nylon Calculus has a new metric that shows Noel saves 1.08 points at the rim per 36 minutes with his long-limbed presence down-low. The fact that Noel is already looking like an elite rim-protector should come as a shock to no one. But he has shown flashes of developing nicely as a pick-and-roll threat-which bodes well for his career-but the Philadelphia Sixers would be better off trading him.
The quickest path to an NBA Championship is a top-10 defense and a middle-of-the-pack offense or vice-versa. And last year, the formerly laughable Charlotte Hornets (formerly Bobcats) made the playoffs behind a new and drastically improved defense, so there are many teams that would be very interested in acquiring Noel’s talents.
To name a few, the Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks could all be potential suitors in a Noel trade. The Rockets are the least likely, as they lead the league in opponents field goal percentage without Noel. But the thought of Dwight Howard and Noel swatting away every shot near the rim is sure to intrigue Rockets GM Daryl “Moreyball” Morey.
The Phoenix Suns actually play decent defense, holding opponents to a respectable 45.3% from the field, but their fast-pace results in them giving up a terrible 103.5 point per game. In joining the Suns, Noel would immediately become their best shot-blocker. He would also fit well into their offensive system. His lack of a post game or jump shot wouldn’t matter if he was focused on defense and running to the rim over and over again. Phoenix has the system in place that would probably most remind Noel of his glory days at the University of Kentucky.
The Heat have perhaps the biggest need for Noel out of all of the teams I mentioned. Their space-and-pace offense hasn’t missed a beat without LeBron James, but their defense has plummeted, allowing opponents to make 46.6% of their shots, a rank that puts them behind teams like the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks . The Heat still give up a low amount of points (97), but Noel would help improve their defensive field goal percentage. And Miami is one of the few destinations where Noel would be able to slide right into the starting lineup, replacing Shawne Williams and giving the Heat some much needed rim-protection. Also head coach Erik Spoelstra loves for his bigs to switch on the pick-and-roll, something Noel’s speed would allow for.
The final team that I believe would be legitimately interested in Noel’s services is the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs have an offense that is obliterating the rest of the league (first in points per game/second in offensive field-goal percentage), and their defense is respectable. But Dallas has always known to contend for a title they need a defensive-minded big man to cover up the defensive short-comings of Dirk Nowitzki. They accomplished this by winning the title with Tyson Chandler in 2011, so they brought him back this offseason. Chandler has 13 years worth of wear-and-tear, so adding Noel’s 1.4 blocks and 1.6 steals per game would give Dallas the young interior defender they have lacked for so long.
Noel is still a work in progress, but he has shown that at the very least he will be an elite rim-protector. And in a league where at the very least a league average defense is needed for postseason success, you could see why Noel being on the trading block could actually bring some enticing offers Philly’s way.
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