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2015 NBA Finals Will Be Won and Lost at the 3-Point Line

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Much to Charles Barkley‘s possible bemusement, the top two 3-point shooting teams — the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers — are in the NBA Finals. The Warriors and Cavs are No. 1 and 2, respectively, in threes per game among playoff teams, which would seem to dispel the notion that “jump-shooting teams” can’t win NBA titles. Whether the Cavs and Warriors are mere jump-shooting teams is highly debatable, but what isn’t debatable is that both teams rely heavily on the 3-point shot.

It’s actually quite remarkable that the Cavs are second among playoff teams in 3-point shooting. LeBron James, fourth on the team in threes per game during the regular season, is averaging a career-low 0.9 in the playoffs. Kevin Love, third on the team during the regular season, has been sidelined since the first round. Kyrie Irving, second on the team during the regular season, has been in and out of the lineup due to knee tendonitis for weeks now. Picking up the shooting slack for the Cavs has been their trio of wing gunners: Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova. These are all guards playing off the ball, floating around the perimeter and knocking down three after three due to LeBron’s ability to attract defenders and make the right pass.

What’s interesting is that the Warriors are similarly guard-heavy with their threes. Get this: Steph Curry and Klay Thompson alone have accounted for 68 percent of the Warriors’ threes this postseason! Because of both the Warriors’ and Cavs’ heavy diet on guard shooters, we’ll likely see a lot of 3-point specialists matched up with other specialists. Smith, Shumpert, Dellavedova, Irving and Thompson and Curry are all guards, meaning that all possible combinations of this six-man shooting squad will probably defend each other.

My feeling is that whichever team wins this battle wins the series. I’ll throw some numbers out there to loosely define “wins this battle”: in the playoffs, Curry and Thompson have combined for 7.9 threes per game; the four Cavs guards have combined for 8.2. Whichever number is higher in the finals will belong to the 2015 NBA champion.

It should be fascinating to watch these teams go after each other on the 3-point line. The Cavs have held opponents to just 28 percent on threes in the playoffs, which is the top mark by a pretty fair margin. The Warriors, on the other hand, have allowed the second-fewest number of threes per game. In the finals, though, both teams will have their hands full. Lest we forget, Curry, Irving and Thompson finished first, second and third (respectively) in this year’s hugely stacked 3-point contest. Get ready for another shootout!

Casey Sherman is the Toronto Raptors Beat Writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @shermham

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