Atlanta Hawks Would Be Crazy To Keep Al Horford Over 2016 Offseason

“Those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” This sage axiom perfectly describes the Atlanta Hawks‘ dilemma concerning Al Horford‘s impending free-agency in comparison to Joe Johnson‘s in 2010. Just as the Hawks are today, Johnson’s 2010 Atlanta iteration was a middle-of-the-pack playoff team, fighting to remain relevant.

Rather than perhaps face immediate irrelevancy, Atlanta chose to re-up their then 29-year-old, four-time All-Star to a widely ridiculed six-year, $123.6 million contract. At the time, this exorbitant pact made “Iso-Joe” the league’s second highest-paid player behind Kobe Bryant.

Granted, Johnson’s contract was back-loaded, but this was still seen as a real head-scratcher around the association. When cooler heads prevailed, Johnson was traded to the Brooklyn Nets just two years into his obscene, cap-crushing deal. In return, the Hawks received an assortment of bench-pieces and a couple of future draft picks.

The best asset to come Atlanta’s way from the Johnson trade was the 2013 first-round choice used to grab Dennis Schroder.

Now fast forward to 2016. As earlier mentioned, the Hawks still vehemently scrap and claw to remain relevant in the East; and at the heart of this unit’s salvo for immediate relevancy is another 29-year-old, four-time All-Star. Much like his predecessor before, Horford is still amid his prime years of production, albeit, those years are beginning to trend toward the back-part of NBA life.

As the late, great Yogi Berra might say on this one, “it’s deja vu all over again.”

However, even considering age, things get a bit convoluted when taking Horford’s unique versatility into consideration. In today’s NBA a true “stretch-five” is a most desired commodity. After connecting on more three-pointers (83) than any other pivot this season, Horford epitomizes “stretch-five.” The eighth-year man also produces a steady 15.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 blocks and near-steal per contest.

Those rare talents and reliable stat-line, combined with unparalleled dignity as a Hawk make a case for re-upping Horford. Unfortunately, Johnson’s attributes did as well. At the end of the day, Hawks management has a responsibility to focus on the franchise’s upward mobility. That does not include re-signing a marginal All-Star player who turns 30 in early June to a max, or near max-contract.

Due to a monumental TV rights coup, the league’s salary-ceiling is set to burst this summer. With a relatively mediocre free-agent class, many teams will no-doubt throw big money Horford’s way. It behooves Atlanta management to not match any outlandish offers.

Instead, this summer, the Hawks brass should focus on re-signing a younger piece in Kent Bazemore, filling holes around Paul Millsap and finally choosing a point guard — preferably Schroder  — beyond next season.

Yogi-Berra-isms notwithstanding, given history, Atlanta would be crazy to re-sign a fading Horford — PER is two points lower this season compared to last — to a long-term, max deal over the summer.

Share On FacebookShare StumbleUpon