Bubble Watch: 5 Reasons Why Georgetown Won’t Make The Big Dance
Bubble Watch: 5 Reasons Why Georgetown Won't Make The Big Dance
Despite a lot of regular season success over the last few years, the Georgetown Hoyas have been horrible in the NCAA Tournament over the last four years. As a No. 3 seed in 2010, they lost in the first round to No. 14 seed Ohio. They ended the 2011 season on a five-game losing streak, including a first-round loss to No. 11 seed VCU, who went on to reach the Final Four. They were a No. 3 seed again in 2012 when they lost in the second round to No. 11 seed NC State. Finally, last year as a No. 2 seed they were the victims of one of the most monumental upsets in tournament history, losing to No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast.
Clearly, the NCAA Tournament has not been kind to the Hoyas as they’ve been eliminated each of the last four years by a double-digit seed. However, it’s better to get to The Big Dance and lose than to not get there at all, although that could be debatable after losing to a No. 15 seed. This season, however, the Hoyas find themselves in a position in which just getting to the tournament is far from a certainty. Georgetown is on the proverbial bubble heading into the final few weeks of the regular season, and they need to turn things up a notch if they expect to reach the tournament for the fifth straight year.
The Hoyas have a decent resume, and they’ve won four of their last five games, including a win over the Michigan State Spartans which gave their hopes a big boost. However, here are five reasons why the Hoyas will not have their name called on Selection Sunday.
5. Double-Digit Loss Total
Losing 10-plus games may have been acceptable for teams playing in the old Big East but not in the new version of the conference. The Hoyas already have a double-digit loss total in the middle of February, and that number could increase down the stretch which will make it hard to justify putting them in the tournament.
4. Five-Game January Losing Streak
Not many teams recover from a five-game losing streak and go on to make the NCAA Tournament, and a five-game skid in January could end up being what dooms the Hoyas this year. During that five-game stretch, the Hoyas lost three games at home and two games to other bubble teams, Marquette and Xavier, putting them in a big hole to climb out of even if they responded with four straight wins. Ironically, Georgetown plays its final five games of the regular season against the same five teams they lost to during that stretch, and unless they can redeem themselves against all five of those teams they’re going to have a hard time reaching the NCAA Tournament.
3. RPI In The 60s
The Hoyas are playing with fire by having an RPI in the 60s. Few teams end up getting at-large bids with an RPI that low, and unless Georgetown can climb into the 40s if not the 30s, they’ll have a hard time getting into The Big Dance.
2. Loss To St. John's
The Hoyas were starting to put things together down the stretch with a four-game winning streak, but a 22-point loss to St. John’s over the weekend could really take the wind out of their sails as they prepare for a difficult stretch run.
1. Little Chance Of Winning Conference Tournament
Winning the Big East Tournament may be Georgetown’s only chance to get to the tournament, but to do that the Hoyas will have to win four games in four days. And along the way they’ll likely have to take down two top-10 teams in Villanova and Creighton. That’s going to be awfully difficult for them to pull off, and if they can’t do it the Hoyas will likely be absent from this year’s NCAA Tournament.
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