Bracketology: 2014 March Madness Value Picks in NCAA Tournament

By Carlton Chin
NCAA Tournament - Final Four
Richard Mackson – USA TODAY Sports

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament selection committee has established the March Madness brackets, and we are all eagerly awaiting the madness to begin!  First, we have to pick our brackets in the hopes of winning our office pool — and perhaps winning Warren Buffett‘s billion dollars by picking a perfect bracket. Now that the brackets are up, please also review a few Bracketology articles on the probabilities of various seeds getting to the Final Four and game theory and potential value.

To outdo your co-workers in your office pool, you need to pick winners, but also need to seek out value. A contrarian approach will help set you apart from other pool participants. In previous articles, I’ve highlighted teams that looked worthy of No. 1 or No. 2 seeds just weeks ago.

Conference championships and recent play dragged several of these teams to lower seeds. However, statistics show that recent play is often focused upon too much, meaning that the highlighted teams have the upside potential to get to the Final Four and earn their backers value.

The following teams have the potential to make a lot of noise during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. If these teams do in fact make a run deep into the tournament, they will also put you at the top of your office pool.

Syracuse Orangemen – No. 3 seed

Creighton Bluejays – No. 3 seed

Duke Blue Devils – No. 3 seed; everyone knows Duke, so perhaps less value than expected.

Michigan State Spartans – No. 4 seed

Iowa Hawkeyes – potential No. 11 seed; play-in game.  Iowa was a top 10 team only two months ago!

Louisville Cardinals – No. 4 seed

Ohio State Buckeyes – No. 6 seed; at one point they were ranked as high as No. 3 3 in the nation.

Carlton Chin is a portfolio manager, quant researcher, and sports analysis contributor at Rant Sports. Please follow him on Twitter @QuantFacts, “Like” him on Facebook, or add him to your Google network.

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