Even though the host Bulls, a 17-point underdog, lost to Louisville last week, they are trending upward based on wins the prior two weeks. Plus, Houston has covered only once this season and that was last week in a 49-14 win at reeling Rutgers. We're betting the Cougars get a little full of themselves and the Bulls of coach Willie Taggart are able to keep this one relatively close.
The Cadets are a surprising 13.5-point underdog, even though this is on the road. Army is a team that played Stanford relatively tough in a 34-20 loss and return two defensive starters who sat out the last game. Plus, the Falcons are 1-7 on merit, with their only win coming over Colgate of the FCS Patriot League. Army wins this game outright.
The Demon Deacons are the classic example of a team coming on strong. They have won two out of the last three and that would have been three of three if not for a Duke Johnson touchdown run for Miami in the final minute last week. As a 3.5-point underdog, even in the Carrier Dome, the Demon Deacons win this game by double digits.
The Middies have given the Irish fits in the past and they seem to have just the kind of team to do that this year. Even though they lost last year's opener, 50-7, to the Irish that was a different Notre Dame team and this is a different Navy team, having come off a 24-21 win over Pitt. The 17 points is way too high and if Purdue can take the Irish down to the fourth quarter, so can Navy.
When you want to beat the odds, one of the best recipes is to pick an obscure game few care about. This is one of those games because South Alabama is not good enough to be favored by 3.5 points and Arkansas State, which owns a 48-24 win over Idaho, is not that bad. (By comparison, ranked Northern Illinois could only beat Idaho, 45-35.) When two Sun Belt teams are 3-4, a good rule of thumb is always pick the team getting the points and we have the Red Wolves in this one.
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