Pat Lovell – USA Today Sports
Indiana (3-2, 0-1 B1G East) heads west to Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City to take on Iowa (4-1, 1-0 B1G West) in their first conference road game on Saturday, Oct. 11 (11 a.m. CDT/noon EDT, ESPNU). Saturday marks the first meeting between Indiana and Iowa in Iowa City since 2011. The Hawkeyes are 23-10-3 overall in home games against the Hoosiers and have won seven of their last 10 games against Indiana.
IU enters the Iowa game off a 49-24 win over the North Texas of the Sun Belt conference last Saturday in Bloomington. IU RB Tevin Coleman from Tinley Park, Ill. had 150 yards rushing on 17 carries and one touchdown against UNT for his seventh consecutive 100-yard game, the longest such streak in the nation. Indiana QB Nate Sudfeld completed 23-of-29 passes (79.3 percent) for 230 yards and three scores against North Texas, the second-highest single-game completion percentage in Indiana football history. Sudfeld is putting together a quietly efficient season under center for the Hoosiers, completing 61 percent of his throws for five touchdowns with only two interceptions.
Iowa, coming in off a bye, beat Purdue 24-10 in West Lafayette two weeks ago. The Hawkeyes erased a 10-point Boilermaker lead, scored the final 24 points of the game and limited Purdue to 17 yards rushing in the second half en route to the win. Sophomore QB C. J. Beathard made his first career start at Purdue, stepping in for injured junior Jack Rudock. Beathard completed 17-of-37 passes against the Boilers for 245 yards and one touchdown.
This game will be a case study in strength on strength. Iowa, a three-point favorite, has a top 20 run defense (2.9 yards per carry). Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat, Iowa’s talented pair of defensive tackles, are among the most productive DTs in the Big Ten. Indiana, on the other hand, behind big play threat Coleman and an experienced offensive line, relies heavily on an efficient running attack (6.1 yards per carry, 10th in the nation). Something has to give in the running game when the Hoosiers have the football. The Indiana and Iowa passing games and pass defenses are statistically comparable, but Iowa’s overall defensive effort to date has been better than Indiana’s. The Hawkeyes are among the 15 toughest FBS teams to score on in the country (17.2 points per game), and while Indiana will surpass that point level and stress the Iowa defense throughout, it will be the Hawkeye defense that ends up carrying the day for the Homecoming faithful.
Prediction: Iowa 30 – Indiana 24
Iowa win probability: 65 percent
Iowa cover probability: 59 percent
Chris Dezelan is a college football writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @dezelan, “Like” him on Facebook, or add him to your network on Google.
