NCAA Football Oregon Ducks

5 Ways Oregon Can Win Out And Miss The CFB Playoff

5 Ways Oregon Can Win Out and Miss the CFB Playoff

Mark Helfrich Oregon Ducks
Carey Edmondson- USA TODAY

In the latest CFB playoff rankings, the Oregon Ducks are No. 4 and on track to make college football’s first-ever final four. Keep in mind all scenarios assume Florida State takes one of the four spots. And except for No. 1, no situation would independently keep Oregon out of the playoff. But if two or more dominoes start to fall, Duck fans might want to be careful about getting those non-refundable hotel rooms and plane tickets.

5. Notre Dame wins out

Notre Dame football
Matt Cashore- USA TODAY

5. Notre Dame wins out

Notre Dame football
Matt Cashore- USA TODAY

If that happens, the Irish would have only one loss to defending champ Florida State in a game Notre Dame should have won. Winning out would also mean victories over three ranked teams, the most prominent being Arizona State this weekend. The Sun Devils are ninth in the new rankings and the Irish are 10th. The Irish and their backers would lobby hard for inclusion.

4. SEC chaos

Nick Saban Alabama
Christopher Hanewinckel- USA TODAY

4. SEC chaos

Nick Saban Alabama
Christopher Hanewinckel- USA TODAY

No. 2 Mississippi State could have a perfect regular season and then lose the SEC title game. If No. 3 Auburn is that team, then the Tigers and Bulldogs would have only lost to each other. What if No. 5 Alabama (shown) loses to MSU next week, then wins the Iron Bowl and the SEC title game? Or if ‘Bama wins next week and then loses to MSU in the title game? Either way has the Tide with two losses and wins over No. 3 and No. 2.

3. The Ducks barely win their final games

Oregon Ducks Marcus Mariota
Scott Olmos- USA TODAY

3. The Ducks barely win their final games

Oregon Ducks Marcus Mariota
Scott Olmos- USA TODAY

This week Oregon is at No. 17 Utah, facing a resurgent Utes club in one of the tougher places to play. If the Utes take the Ducks to the limit (Utah lost in overtime to Arizona State last week) followed by the Ducks playing flat against Colorado and Oregon State, the idea of dominance (or lack thereof) might become a factor.

2. One-loss non-SEC team rampage

TCU football
Tommy Gilligan- USA TODAY

2. One-loss non-SEC team rampage

TCU football
Tommy Gilligan- USA TODAY

What if, say, No. 6 TCU rolls No. 7 Kansas State this weekend, puts up close to 400 points in November and finishes with the one epic shootout loss to No. 12 Baylor while Oregon squeaks by? The committee could give the edge to how a team plays the final month of the season.

1. Marcus Mariota suffers a season-ending injury

Marcus Mariota Oregon Ducks
James Snook- USA TODAY

1. Marcus Mariota suffers a season-ending injury

Marcus Mariota Oregon Ducks
James Snook- USA TODAY

This is one thing that would absolutely stop Oregon’s season cold. The CFB Playoff committee announced early that “injuries would be a factor” in determining the four teams. A team could be shuffled up or down depending on who is hurt or who is expected to play. Oregon’s not the same team without Super Mario, so a broken leg would not only finish Marcus, it would likely finish Oregon’s chances, even if they won the final game or two without him.

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