Predicting the Final Score of Arkansas vs. Missouri

By Rick Stavig
Arkansas Razorbacks, Missouri Tigers
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Quietly one of the better games in a college football weekend featuring a slew of them is the Arkansas and Missouri matchup in Columbia, Missouri.

Arkansas (6-5, 2-5) is coming off two dominating home wins against both LSU and Ole Miss, combining to win 47-0. Mizzou, on the other hand, is 9-2 (6-1) and is a win away from winning the SEC East for the second year in a row.

This is a home game for the Tigers, but surprisingly, they’ve played their worst this season in front of their home crowd. Both of their losses came at home, the first a truly inexplicable loss to paltry Indiana, the other being a thorough 34-0 dismantling at the hands of Georgia, who would claim the East crown this weekend with a Tiger loss.

What to watch for this weekend? Arkansas needs to run the ball to win. That’s easy to assume when considering who coaches the Hogs (Bret Bielema) and who their tailbacks are (Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams, who’ve combined 1,978 yards and 23 TD’s this year). But we also must remember the strength of the Tigers defense lies in their pass rushers, who’ve helped the Tigers to 40 sacks this year, 4th most in the nation. If the Hogs get behind early and have to abandon it’s run game, it’s all over. They simply can’t beat the Tigers this weekend if they’re forced to throw the ball.

The Razorbacks also need their defense to continue playing at an elite level. The Tigers offense isn’t what it used to be this year and are 106th nationally in passing yards per game and 65th in points per game, but still have explosive weapons like Bud Sasser, Jimmie Hunt and Russell Hansbrough. The Hogs forced 6 turnovers last week against Ole Miss and while that number is unlikely to be matched this week, a couple key turnovers (especially in the redzone, again like last week) could be the difference in this tight matchup.

Tigers QB Maty Mauk needs to throw for a higher completion percentage than 52.7%, his season-long average. He also needs to limit turnovers and put together strings of long drives to keep the Razorbacks defense (the real strength of the team, not the ground attack), on the field as long as possible to wear them down.

All in all, I think the Razorbacks continue riding the lightning this weekend and close out their season with a three game SEC winning streak. Despite the Tigers having much, much more at stake than Arkansas, the Hogs are playing with too much confidence right now.

Remember, this Arkansas team may have been just 4-5 two weeks ago, but they should’ve beaten Texas A&M (lost in OT after leading by 21 in the 4th quarter), and only lost by a combined 8 points to #1 Alabama and #4 Mississippi State. This team could very easily be 9-2 and in the mix for the playoffs.

Final Score Prediction: Arkansas 24, Missouri 21.

Rick Stavig is an NFL Draft Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @rickstavig or add him to your network on Google+.

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