Texas Tech has stumbled to 4-7 with a 2-6 conference record, the biggest wins being a 3-point win over Iowa State (2-8), and a 13-point win over Kansas (3-8). The Bears, on the other hand, are 9-1 (6-1 in Big 12 play) and have huge wins over #5 TCU and on the road at #20 Oklahoma. The Raiders, seemingly, don’t have anything to play for, while the Bears, with playoff aspirations very much alive, have everything to play for.
If Baylor wins, they have just one more test remaining (home vs. 8-2 KSU) before claiming the Big 12 title, which you’d think would be enough to get them into the top-4, and into the playoffs. If they lose either game, they’d need TCU to drop a game on the road at Texas or next week to Iowa State to still have a shot.
Baylor, by all accounts and logical reasoning, should absolutely destroy Texas Tech. If you look at recent history, the Bears have averaged more than 60 points per game against the Raiders the past three years compared to Tech’s 40. Baylor is number one nationally in total offense with 584 yards per game, and are 18th nationally in total defense giving up 329 yards per game.
Tech has the 18th ranked offense with 485 yards per game, but are ranked 122nd (out of 125) in total defense giving up 517 yards per game. The only two defenses ranked lower are non-power-5 schools UNLV and SMU, meaning it’s literally the best offense in the country versus the worst defense.
Still, football is anything but predictable these days, so there’s obviously a chance (mathematically, at least), that Tech can pull the upset of the year in the Big 12. Whoever lines up under center for Tech (whether is Patrick Mahomes or Davis Webb) should be able to pass the rock, especially against the Bears young secondary, and RB DeAndre Washington has quietly been a very effective ball carrier all year long.
Plus, the offensive line has been somewhat underrated this year, allowing only 12 sacks all year long, and helped make Washington the first 1,000 yard rusher in Lubbock since Ricky Williams in 1998.
Still, the overall talent level of Baylor, combined with the way they’ve been playing and what’s at stake for them should prove to be too much for a terribly inconsistent Tech team with a tremendously bad defense. My prediction is Baylor rolls.
Final Score Prediction: Baylor 55, Texas Tech 28.