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The first season of the James Franklin era hasn’t been what most Penn State fans were expecting, but has been pretty much spot on from an analytical perspective.
Fans thought with a talent like QB Christian Hackenberg and a fiery, successful coach like Franklin, it could potentially be a double-digit win season, a thought further fueled after a 4-0 start against a slate of below average teams. But many analysts knew the severe lack of depth and the major change in offensive philosophies would hinder the team, particularly once it was past it’s pillow-soft non-conference schedule.
And the analysts were right. Penn State is 6-5 with a 2-5 record in Big Ten play. The latter number is astonishing considering just how historically terrible the Big Ten is this year. The offense has been atrocious, hindered by a sieve-like offensive line, a dearth of playmakers at the skill positions and a poor offensive scheme that has seen a legitimate NFL talent like Hackenberg actually regress from his stellar freshman season last year.
This weekend they’ll have a chance to guarantee a winning season and improve their bowl-game aspirations when they take on rival Michigan State, who’s 9-2 and currently ranked 11th (before the 11/25 College Football Playoff rankings update). MSU is 7th nationally in total offense with 514 yards per game and 8th nationally in total defense, yielding under 300 total yards per game. PSU has a solid defense (3rd nationally in total yards allowed per game), but an offense ranked 113th out of 125.
The fact of the matter is that Penn State’s defense can keep them in this game the best they can, but it’s hard to fathom how the Lions will score enough points to beat Sparty in the end. Despite the game being played in Beaver Stadium with it’s 100k+ fans playing their role, how in the world will the Lions (110th in points per game) outscore the Spartans (6th in points per game)?
While the Lions have relatively little to play for, the Spartans have more to play for. After their loss to Ohio State, they’ll be kept out of the Big Ten Championship Game, which all but seals their fate outside of the first ever College Football Playoff. Despite that, they still have a chance to play in a big time bowl against a big time opponent, which always (and always) helps down the last month home stretch of recruiting and gives the program momentum heading into the offseason. The Fiesta, Orange and Cotton Bowls are all in play for the Spartans with a win, a loss will bump them down a tier to Outback or Capital One Bowl.
If PSU hopes to have a chance in this one, Franklin needs to channel his inner Bill O’Brien and unleash a package of plays to give Hackenberg a chance to find the few holes in the Spartans defense. Remember, no one gave the Lions a shot before last year’s regular season finale on the road at #14 Wisconsin, yet there’s the ice-in-his-veins true freshman Hackenberg completing 70% of his passes for 339 yards and 4 TD’s (0 INT’s) in a huge win that kept Wisconsin out of a BCS bowl.
Still, I don’t have faith in Franklin putting Hackenberg in the right position to capitalize on his immense talents, and Sparty rolls.
Final Score Predicition: Michigan State 24, Penn State 10.
Rick Stavig is an NFL Draft Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @rickstavig or add him to your network on Google+.
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