NCAA Football Oregon Ducks

Oregon Playoff/Bowl Game Scenarios

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By @Alex_Drude

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

By handily winning the 118th Civil War, the No. 2 Oregon Ducks likely clinched a CFB at-large berth, and are extremely close to becoming part of college football’s first-ever Final Four.

There is a chance that Oregon could not become part of the CFB selection process either as a playoff team or an at-large, but it is very slim. That scenario would first involve the Ducks losing to No. 11 Arizona – the team responsible for Oregon’s last two losses — on Friday night in the Pac-12 title game. Then the committee would need to decide that an 11-2 Oregon team would be unworthy of a berth in the Cotton Bowl or Peach Bowl, since as Pac-12 champion the Wildcats would likely be put in the Fiesta Bowl. In that case, the Ducks would go to the Alamo Bowl for a second straight year and probably take on Kansas State in a rematch of the 2013 Fiesta Bowl. The result would also probably be the same, an Oregon TKO.

That, however, is extremely unlikely. The 28-point win over Oregon State means the Ducks will be at least No. 2 in the next CFB rankings, and a loss to the Wildcats wouldn’t even knock Oregon out of the top ten. That would put Oregon in the Cotton or Peach Bowl as an at-large team.

There is also a million-to-one shot where Oregon wins the Pac-12 title over Arizona to finish at 12-1 and doesn’t make the CFB Playoff. The Wildcats are currently 11th and will be in the top ten in the new Tuesday rankings. For Oregon to beat a top-ten team for the conference title and then drop at least three spots would involve some sort of black magic trickery from TCU, Baylor and Ohio State that hasn’t even been invented yet.

The most likely scenario, and the one Oregon fans want to hear, is that the Ducks beat Arizona to clinch a spot in the first-ever CFB Playoff. As No. 3 Florida State keeps on eking out victories to remain undefeated, it appears that a 12-1 Oregon team would be ranked second at worst. Then the Ducks would be considered a “home” team and play in the Rose Bowl semifinal.

I don’t know which would have seemed more unlikely ten years ago — that college football would have a four-team playoff, or the Ducks would be part of it. But one of those things is guaranteed to happen this season, and Oregon is one win away from making both be true.

Alex Drude is a Pac-12 writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Alex_Drude. “Like” him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google+.

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