New York Mets: Move Forward or Start From Scratch?
The New York Mets, despite close to zero positive attention, are one of the bigger surprises in Major League Baseball this year. At the beginning of the season, the only New York Mets related news was either focusing on the financial bind they are stuck in, their lack of pieces to compete or how and why they don’t stack up to their older brothers in the Bronx. Now don’t get me wrong – all of those things are true and valid, but nobody was talking about the New York Mets hanging around in the Wild Card mix past July 4th. If you struck up a conversation with a random baseball fan on March 17 and told him that on July 7 (one week before the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 premier btw) the New York Mets would be as good (nearly as good in some cases) or better than the Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Florida Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies he or she would either A). Laugh AT you, B). Stop speaking with you, or C). All of the above. Who’s laughing now though? The New York Mets are 45-42 and if it weren’t for the loaded pitching rotation of the Philadelphia Phillies (55-33) and the Atlanta Braves (52-36), who some people actually think are better than the best team in baseball, the New York Mets would be atop everyone’s “biggest surprise” list along with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians.
Exceeding expectations is great and it makes for an exciting and somewhat successful season. It also brings up a tough question – especially for a team like the Mets in a market like New York City. Should the Mets try to continue to build on their current foundation or do they blow it up and start from scratch? Each route has its pros and cons with the equal potential to become an incredibly fruitful or damning decision. I think the Mets need go with option number two – wipe the deck and build something new.
The kids today usually put teams into three categories: 1. “sick”/”ill”/”nasty”/”stacked” – these are what the grown ups would refer to as “good” teams; 2. “trash”/”sucks”/”lame” – a.k.a. “bad”; and finally, 3. “meh” – more commonly referred to as “mediocre”. One of these categories is far worse than the other two and it may not be the one you expect. Being mediocre is obviously worse than being good. My unborn son can tell me that. But if you said that being mediocre is worse than being bad then we are on the same page. In sports, there is nothing worse than tight roping the line that separates the playoff field from the lottery (to borrow a basketball term). It might sound stupid, but I would rather my team finish dead last for ten years straight than finish .500 during each season of this hypothetical span. Of course there are a multitude of other considerations and conditions, but I’m talking as if we are in a vacuum. Mediocrity is somewhat like sports limbo. You’re not good enough to compete (although sometimes you may fool yourself into thinking so which only hinders the situation further) and you’re not bad enough to commit to a rebuilding phase (or get the best draft picks to aid in that rebuilding phase). Look at the Tampa Bay Rays. They were terrible for years until they started to cash in on some of their top draft picks and top prospects and now they’re perennial contenders. The road might not be as simple for the Mets, but it just goes to show that they won’t be in uncharted territory if/when they decide to rebuild.
Any Mets discussion has to start with Jose Reyes and David Wright. These two were the younger and fresher version of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. They were supposed to be the duo that helped the New York Mets surpass their aging crosstown rivals. They were oh so close in 2006 but it just wasn’t in their cards. Fast-forward past an epic collapse, an ugly collapse and two poor seasons and here we are. Reyes and Wright are still the face of the Mets franchise, but the foundation that they set is falling apart and neither Carlos Beltran nor Jason Bay – not to mention Johan Santana – can reinforce it the way it needs to be reinforced. Youngsters like Daniel Murphy and Ike Davis looked like they might be able to help the Mets keep their window of opportunity open a little bit longer, but the former has struggled offensively and defensively while the latter is dealing with a nasty ankle injury that might require surgery. Other prospects such as Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia, Eddie Kunz and Nick Evans were expected to provide some contributions as well, but have not been able to for reasons ranging from injury to poor performance. It’s nice of me to spread the blame, but as unfair as it may be, the spotlight always circles back around to Reyes and Wright. We’re going to leave Reyes alone for now because he has shown this season that he is capable of being a superstar and carrying a team. Wright though…not so much these days. From 2005-2008, Wright posted OPS’s no lower than .912 and was an annual MVP candidate – also keep in mind that his highest strikeout total was 118 in 2008. Ever since moving into Citi Field however, Wright has been a shell – albeit a strong shell – of his former self. In 2009, Wright’s HR total plummeted to 10 (fewer than the 14 he hit in 69 games during his rookie season) and in 2010 he went on a strikeout binge, finishing up with 161 whiffs. As inappropriate as Fred Wilpon’s comments may have been, I’m not sure anybody can deny that David Wright is not the superstar that he once was and that presents a significant snag in any plans that the Mets would have to contend.
With the two offensive pillars of the team discussed, I can now move on to the pitching. The bullpen is important, but I’m going to ignore that here because it is such a volatile part of a team – good relievers have down years, no-names become household and some teams will often win division titles with a completely different cast from what they started with. I’m more interested in the starting rotation for now and the Mets’ starting rotation isn’t that bad – it isn’t that good either. Mike Pelfrey (4.64 ERA, 4.74 FIP), Jonathan Neise (3.73, 3.40), Dillon Gee (3.47, 3.87), R.A. Dickey (3.68, 4.14) and Chris Capuano (4.19, 3.97) are all decent pitchers. Decent pitchers that receive a boost from their home park. None of those guys is an ace though. None of those guys fits the profile of a “stopper”. None of those guys can open up a playoff series and go toe-to-toe with Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum or Tommy Hanson. It’s nothing against those guys because Johan Santana was supposed to be that guy for the Mets. As we all know he has been on the mend from shoulder surgery. It will be interesting to see how he performs when he returns (whenever that is). Shoulder surgeries have not experienced the same progress that Tommy John surgery has so nobody will really knows what to expect from Santana. I’m putting my money on Santana more closely resembling the solid, but unspectacular production of his rotation mates than him returning to his former, dominating self – unfortunate considering the over $55 million (assuming buyout after 2013) that remains on his contract through 2013.
So the pitching is unspectacular and the offense, hindered by their home park and injuries, has been a disappointment. We have seen some teams – the current San Francisco Giants squad and the mid-2000 edition of the New York Yankees – succeed by utterly dominating one side of the ball. Needless to say, the Mets won’t be evoking comparisons anytime soon. Not that they need to lead the league in runs or ERA to be successful, but the team they have right now just screams mediocrity – the dirtiest word that nobody pays any attention to.
Blowing up the operation starts with trading Jose Reyes and David Wright. Of course, therein lies another major issue: injuries – especially with Reyes. Head over to Baseball Prospectus and check out each players “card” if you want to see the injury history. As a matter of fact, each player is on the disabled list right now. Injuries are part of the game and freak occurrences happen, but some players just happen to be more injury prone than others. Reyes is one of those guys and even though he’s really only had one (maybe two depending on how his current injury lingers) major DL stint since 2004, its not likely that he’s going to get more durable as he gets older. As hard as it is to imagine Reyes in a different uniform, I don’t think it is in the Mets’ best interest to sign Reyes to the type of deal that he’s going to be looking for. I’ve been saying all season that if Reyes goes, Wright has to go as well. As Walter White would say, “no half measures” (shout out to all of my Breaking Bad fans).
Suggesting that Wright and Reyes should both be traded isn’t the easiest thing to do. I and many other fans watched them come onto the scene together and almost take the Mets to a World Series appearance. Trading or letting them go is necessary though. The Mets will get prospects or draft picks (hopefully the former) in return which will aid in the rebuilding process. Ideally, some prospects – perhaps Matt Harvey, Jenrry Mejia and Wilmer Flores – would be able to crack the big league roster over the next couple of years and gain some valuable experience while some of the vets played out their contracts. Guys like Carlos Beltran ($18.5 million in 2011) and Francisco Rodriguez (probably) ($11.5 million) will be coming off of the books after this season and by the end of 2013, Johan Santana and Jason Bay will more than likely be off of the books as well.
As a fan, its never a good feeling to find out that your team is going to dwell in the cellar for a couple of years while they rebuild. New York Mets fans should accept the fact that the team needs to hit the reset button though. Bringing in prospects in trades and keeping the checkbook closed while albatross contracts expire will help the front office build a fresh foundation from which to build upon. Finishing dead last or next to last for each of the next 2-3 seasons would definitely sting, but in the end the pain is a lot less severe than what years of mediocrity would inflict.
For more opinionated banter on the New York Mets, check me out on twitter @craigmwilliams and check out Citi Field Nine on facebook.
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2 Rants to “New York Mets: Move Forward or Start From Scratch?”
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While I generally agree–the Mets do need to consider rebuilding, I think you’re missing that with big contracts coming off the books each year, the Mets can afford to replace some of the production of Wright, Reyes, and Beltran via free agency.
In other words, I don’t believe the Mets, or Met fans, have to accept being in the cellar for 2-3 years. I know the Mets are undergoing some financial struggles right now, but they aren’t completely crippled–they can definitely afford to make a splash THIS offseason.
In general, I think thats one of the bigger differences between small and large market teams–all will go through ebbs and flows, but large market teams, with money to spend, can recover quickly and don’t have to wait for every single prospect to develop. Met fans should be very worried about their ownership and GM if this team is in the cellar for 2-3 seasons.
You’re right. I guess the question then becomes should they make those splashes. It’s hard to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to scenarios that we’re not even faced with at the moment, but right now I wouldn’t mind if the Mets said that they were going to be extremely conservative in the free agent market for a year or two. Of course my mind could always change. The most important thing is that if they do spend the money, they are spending it on the type of player(s) that fit the ballpark and the style of play that the Mets will need to adopt in order to be successful. I’d be okay with the Mets taking two steps back if it means they can eventually take four steps forward, but you’re right – those two steps back aren’t necessarily a necessity.