NFL Prediction Machine: 2012 Philadelphia Eagles Are Super Bowl XLVII Champions
The Philadelphia Eagles have done it. They are finally Super Bowl champions.
That would be on paper and according to www.predictionmachine.com, which simulates the entire NFL season 50,000 times before it is actually played.
In their description, they state:
Below, we explain How This Works and breakdown every team division-by-division. In each team’s preview, the “Most Important” players are those whose play is most critical to the team’s success. Typically, they will be young, injury-prone or inconsistent players who could just as likely play well and help the team as play poorly or miss games to hurt the team. Also, the Offensive and Defensive Rankings are based on how many points a team would score (offense) or allow (defense) if each team played the same, league-average schedule.
The Predictalator’s technology is built to handle such a demanding task. Making sure that we have the best possible inputs for players’ statistics, progression over time and age, roles, health and playing time as well as teams’ coaching styles and weather are keys to the accuracy of the output.
In general, we apply strength-of-schedule-adjusted, relevant statistics from every player’s careers (weighted more heavily on the most recent 16 games) to a fairly traditional player development curve that considers age and previous playing time. Not only does this development curve help to set average inputs, it combines with health history to dictate the variance (“boom or bust” potential) of a player’s inputs.
Playing time estimation is more of an art than a science for all players who are expected to see significant starting time in 2012. That being said, gaps have been filled in by our best approximations of average bench and role players on teams. This has a very minor impact on average results.”
The simulation has the following to say about the Philadelphia Eagles, who emerge as the number one most likely team to win the Super Bowl.
“With a full offseason, a tremendous draft and some better fortune, the Eagles, who have the best roster in the NFL, look like the most likely team in the league to win it all. Even assuming starting quarterback Michael Vick misses two games on average (but he is assumed to be healthy for this playoff simulation), Philadelphia wins a league-high 10.8 games to take the NFC East, which has four teams projected to win 7.3 or more games, 56.9% of the time, ultimately making the playoffs 84.0% of the time. The Eagles go on to make the Super Bowl 29.5% of the time, winning it 18.0% of the time.”
Just think about that. 84 percent chance of reaching the postseason. That’s more than five in six. Those are incredible odds. More likely than not to win the division despite the Super Bowl champion New York Giants and the always interesting Dallas Cowboys. I like these odds a lot.
Oh, and if you’re wondering more, here is the analysis on the team this season:
Power Rank: 1
Offensive Rank: 7
Defensive Rank: 4
Division Standing: 1
2011 Playoff Teams on Schedule: 8
Projected 2012 Playoff Teams on Schedule: 6
Projected Record: 10.8 – 5.2
Playoff Probabilities: 84.2%
Super Bowl Win%: 18.0%
Biggest Strength: Talented Roster
Greatest Weakness: Schedule and Michael Vick’s Health
Most Important Offensive Player: Michael Vick
Most Important Defensive Player: DeMeco Ryans
Fantasy Stud: LeSean McCoy
Fantasy Dud: NONE
Fantasy Sleeper: Mike Kafka
This article was written by Bryn Swartz, the top writer for the Philadelphia Eagles and a featured NFL columnist on Rant Sports. Bryn has written more than 1000 articles in less than two years as a member of Rant Sports. His blog, Eagles Central, was named the 2010 Ballhyped Sports Blog of the Year. To read a portfolio of Bryn’s best work, click here.