Predicting the Probability of All 87 Players on the Philadelphia Eagles Making the Roster

There are currently 87 players on the Philadelphia Eagles roster. 53 will make the team and 34 will be cut.

Below is my attempt at predicting the probability for each player for making the team this season. These are all obviously just estimates. I’m going to group them into percentages, and in each group, they’ll be listed in order of positions.

100 percent:

Michael Vick, Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, Brent Celek, Demetress Bell, Evan Mathis, Jason Kelce, Danny Watkins, Todd Herremans, Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, Fletcher Cox, Trent Cole, Jason Babin, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, DeMeco Ryans, Mychal Kendricks, Brian Rolle, Jamar Chaney, Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Brandon Boykin, Nate Allen, Kurt Coleman, Alex Henery, Jon Dorenbos (30)

These are the guys that are all starters or good enough to start. If you cut them, you would really hurt the team.

90 percent:

King Dunlap, Curtis Marsh, Joselio Hanson (3)

Neither will be a starter, and both may not play a lot in 2012. But if the Eagles cut Dunlap, they have no insurance if Bell struggles because rookie Dennis Kelly definitely won’t be ready to play.

Marsh is still a project, having played cornerback for just four years of his life now. He was a third round pick and had a good camp so he’ll be on the team.

80 percent:

Dion Lewis, Riley Cooper, Julian Vandervelde, Phillip Hunt, Casey Matthews, OJ Atogwe, Mat McBriar (7)

Not one of these players is a starter, unless you count McBriar as the punter, but all are key backups. Five of the seven are in their second or third season.

70 percent:

Mike Kafka, Damaris Johnson, Clay Harbor, Dennis Kelly, Jaiquawn Jarrett (5)

Kafka and Jarrett have really struggled in camp but I think they will both make the team. Johnson has come out of nowhere and has an inside track to the fifth receiver spot. Harbor has probably saved his job with a big training camp and Kelly is a rookie with a lot of potential.

60 percent:

Bryce Brown, Antonio Dixon, Akeem Jordan (3)
If Brown could block at all, he’d make the team, but if the Eagles keep just three running backs, it could be Polk over him. Dixon and Jordan are both veterans who should make the team as necessary depth.

50 percent:

Chris Polk, Marvin McNutt, Darryl Tapp, Cedric Thornton, Brandon Hughes (5)
Polk could make it at running back or at fullback. He’s just got to find a way onto the team. McNutt hasn’t really impressed through camp but as a rookie, the Eagles will want to give him a chance. It could come down to whether the team keeps five or six wide receivers. Tapp and Thornton could actually be competing against each other for the final spot, but the Eagles have so much depth at defensive line that it wouldn’t be surprising to see both stay. Hughes is a player the Eagles were fond of last year but he didn’t do much when he got to play and hasn’t stood out so far in camp.

40 percent:

Stanley Havili, Brandon Washington, Keenan Clayton (3)
The Eagles will need a fullback, but it could easily turn into Chris Polk instead of Havili. I think it will. Washington is a rookie and the Eagles like to keep rookie linemen but he hasn’t impressed and he was out with a concussion for a while. Clayton is competing with Akeem Jordan for the final spot at linebacker. I don’t think he’ll get it.

30 percent:

Trent Edwards, Chad Hall, Brett Brackett, Dallas Reynolds, Cliff Harris, Tom Nelson (6)
Each of these six is still in the running for a roster spot but they would need to really outperform their competition over the final three preseason games.

20 percent:

Emil Igwenagu, Mike Gibson, Steve Vallos, Monte Simmons, Trevard Lindley, Kevin Thomas, Phillip Thomas, Chas Henry (8)
At most, one of these will make the team. None of these players are that good but they are have a chance because their positions don’t have a lot of depth.

10 percent:

Mardy Gilyard, Elvis Akpla, Chase Ford, Ryan Rau, Adrien Moten, Wade Bonner (6)
All very slim chances. These players would need to go nuts in the next three weeks.

<5 percent:

Jamel Hamler, Tiger Jones, McKay Jacobson, Brian Hernandez, Thomas Welch, DJ Jones, Alfred McCullough, Ollie Ogbu, Frank Trotter, Monte Taylor, Xavier Brown (11)
There would need to be many, many injuries for any of these guys to make the team. But my percentages don’t factor in injuries, meaning none of these players has a chance.

This article was written by Bryn Swartz, the top writer for the Philadelphia Eagles and a featured NFL columnist on Rant Sports. Bryn has written more than 1000 articles in less than two years as a member of Rant Sports. His blog, Eagles Central, was named the 2010 Ballhyped Sports Blog of the Year. To read a portfolio of Bryn’s best work, click here.


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