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Picking the Spread- Week Four

Darelle Revis New York Jets

Steve Mitchell- US Presswire

Last week was a tough week but I managed to break even at 2-2 with my top four picks of the weekend. My gut is going with mostly teams on the road this week. In the first three weeks with the replacement referees, the home team record is 31-17. I think this week, having professional officials will bring back a little more normalcy. So here are my picks for this week.

San Fran @ New York Jets (+3.5): This is a pick based solely on emotions. The San Francisco 49ers are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The New York Jets are down in the dumps after losing key defensive player, Darelle Revis , to a season ending knee injury. On paper, the Jets show a significant decrease in performance when Revis is not on the field and I just don’t think there is enough time to game plan effectively this week against a team hungry for a win. The Jets offense has also decreased production since their opening day win against the Buffalo Bills and with a 49ers’ defense that plays rough, Mark Sanchez is likely to succumb to pressure and officially begin the Tim Tebow controversy. I like San Fran to go in and take revenge with a convincing win and cover.

San Diego @ Kansas City  +0.5:   The fact that this game is basically even has me intrigued. I could be falling into the trap game but I just don’t think a win over a broken New Orleans Saints team rectifies the blowout losses that the Kansas City Chiefs suffered in weeks one and two.  The San Diego Chargers aren’t that bad with a 2-1 record and Philip Rivers had a really bad game last week against the Atlanta Falcons, throwing two picks and zero touchdowns. I think he will come back with a better performance and San Diego will win this week.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville +1.5: The Cincinnati Bengals look pretty impressive to me with Andy Dalton playing very well. They are ranked fourth in the league in passing yards and have posted 72 points in their last two games, averaging 291 passing yards. With the Jacksonville Jaguars defense struggling against the passing game, the Bengals should be able to continue throwing the ball freely to A.J. Green. I’m going with one more road team and picking the Bengals to cover.

Saints @ Packers -7.5: I have to pick one home team right? I think that if the Green Bay Packers are going to save their season, this is the week to do it. I won’t even get into the emotion coming off of the Monday Night Football debacle, but I think the Saints are too much of a mess and currently the worst team in the league right now.  The Saints defense is struggling against strong offensive teams this season, having gone up against Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton and then falling flat to the Chiefs. The Saints are showing that a coach is just as valuable as a star quarterback and the Packers should be able to build back some confidence. If not, then Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will need to be heavily reevaluated, and so will my fantasy team. I think the Packers will have a big win and cover.

Check out my top four picks every week for Sunday and Monday games and let me know what you think. Follow me on Twitter too @christynepolle.