Indianapolis Colts: 5 Reasons Why they Will Beat the New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts: 5 Reasons Why they Will Beat the New York Jets
The Indianapolis Colts will travel to MetLife Stadium on Sunday to take on the New York Jets. The Colts are coming off of a very big emotional victory over the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. The win gave Indianapolis their second victory of the season which matched the total for all of last season. Their young team is looking very good and like they can actually contend for one of the playoff spots this season.
The Jets on the other hand are in shambles. They’ve lost three of the their last four games and the lone win in that span was a 23-20 overtime victory over the Miami Dolphins. Their defense have kept them in games though as they’ve given up more than 28 points only once this season. That came in their shutout 34-0 loss to the San Francisco 49ers just two weeks ago. The defense also lost All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis for what most likely will be for the season and that loss could hamper their chances.
The offense though has seen their share of injuries with receivers Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill being banged up. Holmes is now out for the season for his injury suffered in the 49ers loss. Another big loss for the Jets this season has been tight end Dustin Keller. Keller’s been banged up all season and hasn’t played much. He only has one catch for seven yards in 2012. He’s questionable for Sunday’s game.
With all those injuries, quarterback Mark Sanchez hasn’t had any weapons to throw to. He’s facing big time pass rushes because the receiver position is very weak and teams don’t need to put extra guys in the secondary. That’s made it tough for Sanchez as he’s only completed 48.4-percent of his passes this year.
Another bad thing about not respecting the Jets pass is teams are stacking the box for their running game. Shonn Greene only has 217 yards on 76 carries and his 2.9 yard average per carry is the lowest for a starting running back in the NFL.
The team is in shambles and the New York media is wanting Tim Tebow. The team is trying everything they can do to get a win, but it’s not working. These are the reason’s why I think the Colts will come in and win on Sunday.
New York’s Too Desperate
The Jets are playing way too desperate on the offensive side of the ball and that’s coming back to haunt them. Now, they’re doing this because of the media wanting big time change and the crowd is becoming restless.
Against the Houston Texans, the Jets tried to go for it on fourth down a couple times in their own territory, faked a punt, tried an onside kick too early, and running bad end arounds or trick plays on untimely downs. That kind of desperation isn’t going to work.
The Jets are just ignoring the obvious that they’re just not very good. Trying trick plays with guys that shouldn’t be on an NFL field are definitely not going to work. Sanchez isn’t a very good quarterback and using trick plays isn’t fooling anyone.
Now, if city name before the Jets wasn’t New York we wouldn’t be talking about them with so much urgency and saying they’re under performing. Many would just say this is a flat out bad football team with no weapons and not give it much more thought.
But, the Jets bring the attention to them by bringing in Tebow, wanting the spotlight, and being in New York doesn’t help. That’s causing the desperation and they’re more than likely going to try it again against the Colts on Sunday and once again it isn’t going to work.
Jets Have No Running Game
The Colts have done much better against the rush this season. They held Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, and all the Packers backs to under 100-yards rushing. They did allow Maurice Jones-Drew to go off, but that was a mental breakdown for the team.
The Jets’ running core isn’t any better than the guys they’ve already faced. In fact, they’re the worst. As stated in the intro slide, Shonn Greene has the worst yards per carry average in the league. His backup Bilal Powell is somewhat effective, but he’s only averaging 3.9 per carry.
Sometimes they bring in Joe McKnight for a third option, but he’s worse than Greene. McKnight is only averaging 2.7 yards on seven carries. They use him in a lot of trick plays which isn’t going to work.
If this was the old Colts I’d say this could be the breakout game for the Jets rushing attack, but this is a new team. They have the personnel to play tight coverage on the Jets wide outs and stack the box on New York’s ground game.
I don’t think any Jets back gets much over 50 yards Sunday and the Colts win this battle.
Lack of Offensive Scoring for the Jets
The Jets’ offense struggles to put points on the board. They’ve only been in the end zone three total times in the last four games. They do most of their scoring on kickoffs or on defense. They’ve scored the same amount of touchdowns on special teams and defense the past three weeks as the offense.
This plays right in the hands of the Colts.
The Jets only average 19.6 points per game. Without any weapons on offense and Sanchez only completing 48 percent of his passes, the Colts don’t need to panic. Now, don’t get me wrong Sanchez will probably hit Jeremy Kerley or Jeff Cumberland deep a couple of times like he did against Houston, but it won’t be enough for a win.
Andrew Luck will just have to manage the offense and not turn the ball over. That’s something he’s actually very good at. Like against the Packers the Colts offense just needs to maximize their possessions. If they can just get points on the board it will force the Jets into desperation mode. That plays right into the Colts’ hands and is a recipe for Jets turnovers.
The lack of scoring on New York’s side will create a lot of issues on that side of the ball. Expect 2-3 turnovers on the Jets’ part Sunday.
Colts Ground Game
Normally, this wouldn’t make much sense to rely on the ground game for the Colts, but Sunday they will. The Jets rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams in giving up rushing yards. They’ve given up 172 yards per game on the ground.
Where the Jets struggle to defend the ground isn’t the balls run up the middle. It’s a back breaking to the outside and finding daylight. The Colts need to use the same approach as the Texans in exploiting that. Put a fullback in and use both tight ends as blockers on the outside.
That allows Donald Brown to break stretch plays to the outside and get 7-10 yards per carry. That’s what Brown does best actually. He’s not the run between the tackles kind of guy. He’s dangerous in getting outside and having daylight. Luckily for Brown, that’s the Jets’ weakness.
Brown did this last Sunday against the Packers. He found daylight and had 84 yards on the ground. I expect him to flirt with 100 yards on the ground Sunday and get a couple of touchdowns. The Jets just aren’t good enough at keeping backs between tackles.
What this does is sets up play action for the Colts and Luck will thrive in that on Sunday. That makes the Jets dial in more blitzes and Luck has been smart enough all year to call short routes or screen plays. Again, Brown in a screen pass scenario could be dangerous for the Jets.
All of this will be a result of the Colts getting a good ground game against the Jets. Look for that to happen.
Limit Offensive Mistakes
The Colts have been good at limiting mistakes on the offensive side of the ball so far this year. Usually with a rookie quarterback it’s the opposite way around, but Luck has been superb. He needs to do that again on Sunday.
His favorite target this season has been Reggie Wayne. Wayne’s caught 36 passes already and bailed Luck out multiple times last Sunday with catching 13 passes. This Sunday, it’s going to be a bit tougher to find Wayne and he will be defended by Antonio Cromartie. Everyone in Indy is already familiar with him.
Cromartie blanketed Texans receiver Andre Johnson all night on Monday and showed why he’s still a threat to throw at. Luck doesn’t need to force passes on him this week. That results in troubles sometimes.
Luck just needs to play his game and scramble when no one’s open. He doesn’t need to force passes into coverage and throw interceptions. He’s not Mark Sanchez.
If Luck can manage the game right and not turn the ball over the Colts no doubt will win on Sunday.